Overnight · SPY
Which structure to hold
| Structure | Nights | Profitable nights | Total P&L | Avg per night | Max drawdown | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 shares buy 100 shares at 15:45, sell at 09:35 |
448 | 50% | +598 | +1.3 | -5,317 | +834 | -236 |
| Shares + put 1 % below 100 shares plus a put about 1 % below, expiring on the exit day |
448 | 46% | -4,010 | -9.0 | -5,771 | -1,232 | -2,778 |
| Shares + put 2 % below 100 shares plus a put about 2 % below, expiring on the exit day |
441 | 48% | -3,767 | -8.5 | -5,612 | -1,965 | -1,802 |
| Synthetic + put 1 % below buy the ATM call, sell the ATM put, buy a put about 1 % below |
448 | 45% | -4,678 | -10.4 | -6,286 | -1,549 | -3,129 |
| Synthetic + put 2 % below buy the ATM call, sell the ATM put, buy a put about 2 % below |
441 | 48% | -4,439 | -10.1 | -5,913 | -2,286 | -2,153 |
| ATM call buy the ATM call expiring on the exit day |
448 | 37% | -1,317 | -2.9 | -4,110 | +497 | -1,814 |
Cumulative P&L by structure
Does choosing the side help
| Direction rule | Nights | Profitable nights | Total P&L | Avg per night | Max drawdown | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Always long Every night the bullish structure. |
448 | 51% | +2,251 | +5.0 | -5,857 | +2,212 | +39 |
| Always short Every night the mirrored bearish structure: short shares, or a put instead of a call, protected on the other side. |
447 | 40% | -13,671 | -30.6 | -19,314 | -7,350 | -6,321 |
| Follow the session so far Long when the underlying at 15:44 is above the open of that session, short otherwise. |
448 | 45% | -4,678 | -10.4 | -6,286 | -1,549 | -3,129 |
| Against the session so far Short when the underlying at 15:44 is above the open of that session, long otherwise. |
447 | 46% | -6,742 | -15.1 | -11,654 | -3,589 | -3,153 |
| Long only after an up session Long when the session so far is up, no position otherwise. |
242 | 50% | +2,184 | +9.0 | -3,166 | +1,580 | +604 |
| Long only after a down session Long when the session so far is down, no position otherwise. |
206 | 52% | +67 | +0.3 | -4,205 | +632 | -565 |
| Follow the previous session Long when the previous completed session closed above its open, short otherwise. |
448 | 42% | -15,608 | -34.8 | -16,043 | -4,694 | -10,914 |
| Against the previous session Short when the previous completed session closed above its open, long otherwise. |
447 | 49% | +4,188 | +9.4 | -4,827 | -444 | +4,632 |
Synthetic + put 1 % below · Follow the session so far
Weeknights: 350 nights, 46% profitable, -5,406 in total, -15 per night. Weekends and holidays: 98 nights, 43% profitable, +728 in total, +7 per night.
Average move of the underlying from 15:44 to 09:34: +0.050 %. Protection alone, premium paid at 15:45 minus premium recovered at 09:35 with fees: put 1 % below $12.9 per night, put 2 % below $8.3 per night.
How it was computed
The underlying price at entry is the close of the 15:44 minute bar (12:44 on shortened sessions), at exit the close of the 09:34 bar. Strikes are chosen from the entry price: the ATM strike is the nearest whole dollar, the protective strike the nearest whole dollar to 1 % or 2 % away. Every option is priced at the last NBBO at or before 15:45:00 and 09:35:00; a quote older than 15 minutes or missing makes the night unusable for that structure and it is listed, not counted. Shares pay a one-cent spread and $1 commission each way and receive no dividend in this model. Short options can be assigned early and shares held overnight need capital or margin; neither is modelled.
Last update: 2026-10-16 21:00:06 UTC