SPY / QQQ · DAILY BARS SINCE 2021, MINUTES SINCE SEPTEMBER 2024
When does the market rise?
Share of positive and negative segments: the regular session, the whole night and its three parts. Official prices, no costs.
SPY · Regular session versus the night, by year
Each cell: share up / share down, then the number of segments and the sum in dollars for 100 shares.
| Year | Regular session 09:30 → 16:00 | Whole night, close → next open |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 54.4%/45.2% | 61.1%/38.9% |
| 2022 | 50.6%/49.4% | 45.4%/54.6% |
| 2023 | 58.8%/41.2% | 51.2%/48.4% |
| 2024 | 53.6%/46.4% | 61.1%/37.7% |
| 2025 | 52.4%/47.2% | 59.6%/40.4% |
| 2026 | 50.0%/50.0% | 57.1%/42.9% |
| All years | 53.4%/46.5% | 55.9%/43.8% |
SPY · The night in three parts
Minute data start on 06 Sep 2024. The exchange-closed part cannot be traded by itself; a position has to cross all three.
| Year | After-hours 16:00 → 20:00 | Exchange closed 20:00 → 04:00 | Premarket 04:00 → 09:30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 40.7%/59.3% | 65.4%/34.6% | 62.0%/38.0% |
| 2025 | 52.8%/47.2% | 56.2%/43.8% | 57.0%/42.6% |
| 2026 | 51.5%/48.5% | 55.1%/43.9% | 56.1%/43.4% |
| All | 50.5%/49.5% | 57.1%/42.5% | 57.4%/42.2% |
SPY · Trailing windows
The last one to five years ending 15 Oct 2026.
| Window | Segment | Segments | Up / down | Avg up / down | Sum, $ per 100 shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr | Whole night | 251 | 57.0%/43.0% |
+0.40% / -0.40% | +9,187 |
| Regular session | 251 | 50.2%/49.8% |
+0.48% / -0.46% | +1,475 | |
| 2 yr | Whole night | 501 | 58.3%/41.3% |
+0.40% / -0.47% | +13,652 |
| Regular session | 501 | 51.3%/48.5% |
+0.55% / -0.53% | +5,549 | |
| 3 yr | Whole night | 753 | 59.2%/40.2% |
+0.39% / -0.43% | +24,758 |
| Regular session | 753 | 53.1%/46.7% |
+0.51% / -0.52% | +9,271 | |
| 4 yr | Whole night | 1003 | 56.4%/43.2% |
+0.41% / -0.43% | +26,311 |
| Regular session | 1003 | 53.4%/46.5% |
+0.54% / -0.55% | +15,105 | |
| 5 yr | Whole night | 1254 | 55.1%/44.6% |
+0.43% / -0.48% | +19,376 |
| Regular session | 1254 | 53.3%/46.7% |
+0.61% / -0.64% | +13,216 |
How it is counted and where the data come from
Regular session and night use official daily prices (Yahoo, unadjusted): open → close of the day, and close → open of the next session. After-hours, closed exchange and premarket use Massive one-minute bars, which this plan serves from 6 September 2024: the last after-hours minute of the day (19:59, or 16:59 after a 13:00 close), the first premarket minute (04:00) and the last minute before the open (09:29). The three parts do not add up exactly to the whole night because the opening auction and the closing auction sit between the minute bars and the official prices.
Sums are the dollar move of 100 shares held through every segment of that kind, with no spread, commission or dividend. A segment that ends exactly where it started is counted in the total but neither as up nor as down. The table is refreshed by the worker every evening after the after-hours session closes.