Storylines that may come to a head within 1–5 trading days

Assessed on the latest evening

Ordered by the chance of a decisive step within 5 trading days times the size of the move it would bring. The chance is the model’s own estimate; how such estimates matched what happened next is shown below.

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How the evening estimates matched what came next

Evenings 03.09–30.09: 4,843 assessments with five sessions of prices after them. A large move is a day beyond the market of at least two typical days (2σ) in the next five sessions; a new event is a new fact of the same storyline within five trading days.

Direction: where the model named up or down and the stock moved at least one typical day beyond the market over the next five sessions, the sign matched in 687 of 1481 cases.

Assessments of one storyline on neighbouring evenings overlap, and a large move may come from other news; this is a first reading over five weeks, not a proof.

How it is built

1. Which company: every first headline of a group of reprints goes to Qwen3.6-27B with thinking off; the rare doubtful ones go to DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, which may read the article. Only a direct link counts: the company, its product, unit or executive is the subject or a party of the news.
2. One event: headlines of a company close in meaning over 72 hours are compared by Qwen3.6-27B; every merge it proposes is checked by DeepSeek V4 Flash with thinking. Opinion pieces without a new fact are set aside.
3. Storyline: DeepSeek V4 Flash with thinking decides whether a new event continues one of the company’s storylines of the last 14 days, starts a new one or is a one-off.
4. Evening assessment: at 22:00 UTC the same model sees the storyline’s chronology up to that moment and the stock’s daily moves beyond the market, and answers what is pending, the chance within 5 trading days, direction, size and how much is already in the price.