Overnight · QQQ
Which structure to hold
| Structure | Nights | Profitable nights | Total P&L | Avg per night | Max drawdown | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 shares buy 100 shares at 15:45, sell at 09:35 |
448 | 47% | -18,989 | -42.4 | -20,758 | -3,662 | -15,326 |
| Shares + put 1 % below 100 shares plus a put about 1 % below, expiring on the exit day |
445 | 41% | -16,509 | -37.1 | -18,753 | -3,063 | -13,446 |
| Shares + put 2 % below 100 shares plus a put about 2 % below, expiring on the exit day |
437 | 44% | -21,514 | -49.2 | -23,114 | -4,963 | -16,551 |
| Synthetic + put 1 % below buy the ATM call, sell the ATM put, buy a put about 1 % below |
445 | 42% | -18,998 | -42.7 | -20,612 | -4,592 | -14,405 |
| Synthetic + put 2 % below buy the ATM call, sell the ATM put, buy a put about 2 % below |
437 | 43% | -24,034 | -55.0 | -25,603 | -6,524 | -17,510 |
| ATM call buy the ATM call expiring on the exit day |
446 | 36% | -9,510 | -21.3 | -10,995 | -1,589 | -7,921 |
Cumulative P&L by structure
Does choosing the side help
| Direction rule | Nights | Profitable nights | Total P&L | Avg per night | Max drawdown | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Always long Every night the bullish structure. |
446 | 50% | +10,361 | +23.2 | -4,831 | +7,185 | +3,176 |
| Always short Every night the mirrored bearish structure: short shares, or a put instead of a call, protected on the other side. |
442 | 40% | -16,463 | -37.2 | -23,850 | -10,356 | -6,107 |
| Follow the session so far Long when the underlying at 15:44 is above the open of that session, short otherwise. |
444 | 44% | -3,248 | -7.3 | -11,621 | +2,363 | -5,611 |
| Against the session so far Short when the underlying at 15:44 is above the open of that session, long otherwise. |
444 | 45% | -2,854 | -6.4 | -9,668 | -5,534 | +2,680 |
| Long only after an up session Long when the session so far is up, no position otherwise. |
237 | 49% | +5,011 | +21.1 | -3,230 | +5,525 | -515 |
| Long only after a down session Long when the session so far is down, no position otherwise. |
209 | 51% | +5,350 | +25.6 | -3,072 | +1,660 | +3,690 |
| Follow the previous session Long when the previous completed session closed above its open, short otherwise. |
445 | 41% | -16,509 | -37.1 | -18,753 | -3,063 | -13,446 |
| Against the previous session Short when the previous completed session closed above its open, long otherwise. |
443 | 48% | +10,407 | +23.5 | -7,003 | -108 | +10,515 |
Shares + put 1 % below · Follow the previous session
Weeknights: 349 nights, 42% profitable, -13,008 in total, -37 per night. Weekends and holidays: 96 nights, 41% profitable, -3,501 in total, -36 per night.
Average move of the underlying from 15:44 to 09:34: +0.070 %. Protection alone, premium paid at 15:45 minus premium recovered at 09:35 with fees: put 1 % below $13.1 per night, put 2 % below $11.3 per night.
How it was computed
The underlying price at entry is the close of the 15:44 minute bar (12:44 on shortened sessions), at exit the close of the 09:34 bar. Strikes are chosen from the entry price: the ATM strike is the nearest whole dollar, the protective strike the nearest whole dollar to 1 % or 2 % away. Every option is priced at the last NBBO at or before 15:45:00 and 09:35:00; a quote older than 15 minutes or missing makes the night unusable for that structure and it is listed, not counted. Shares pay a one-cent spread and $1 commission each way and receive no dividend in this model. Short options can be assigned early and shares held overnight need capital or margin; neither is modelled.
Last update: 2026-10-16 21:00:06 UTC