Backtest: weekly options
Historical bid/ask model
Contracts and strikes are selected from the chain available that day. At 09:35 New York, short legs sell at bid and long legs buy at ask using the latest quote within the current regular session. A quote remains current until updated. Positions close at the opposite bid/ask 15 minutes before the stock session ends on expiry day, including shortened sessions.
The model reserves $0.65 per leg for entry and again for exit. This conservative fee estimate includes long options valued at zero with exercise waived; their price is marked with an asterisk.
Published data period: 2026-01-01 to 2026-10-16.
Displayed prices are historical quotes, not confirmed simultaneous fills. Commissions apply on entry and exit. Early assignment, stock delivery, intraday stops, and financing are not simulated. Risk at expiry is theoretical; quoted closing costs can exceed the spread width.
Data coverage: 2003 entries; 1954 closed; 49 still open; 0 missing an exit quote.
Skipped entry opportunities: 186 for market data or contract checks; 0 without an expiry in the selected window. Counts use the selected ticker, strategy and shape.
For 75 closed trades, exit quote size cannot support the budget-sized position. The scaled total is incomplete; these trades remain in the one-contract results.
Historical results by shape
| Shape | Strategy | Trades | Profitable trades | Avg P&L | Total P&L | Return on expiry risk | Stress P&L (−10 % credit) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the money, wing 0.5 % | Bullish | 1,506 | 55.8% | -53.1 | -79975.60 | -30.5% | -92699.80 |
| 1 % out of the money, wing 1 % | Bullish | 1,639 | 69.1% | -52.4 | -85923.40 | -14.8% | -101493.00 |
| At the money, wing 0.5 % | Bearish | 1,511 | 47.6% | -62.8 | -94857.60 | -40.3% | -110363.10 |
| 1 % out of the money, wing 1 % | Bearish | 1,623 | 63.6% | -63.8 | -103499.80 | -18.6% | -120675.70 |
| At the money, wing 1 % | Bullish | 1,651 | 56.9% | -72.8 | -120216.60 | -24.1% | -143647.30 |
| At the money, wing 1 % | Bearish | 1,650 | 50.5% | -72.9 | -120232.00 | -26.5% | -148398.30 |
| At the money, wing 2 % | Bullish | 1,954 | 58.2% | -78.1 | -152620.40 | -14.5% | -197700.10 |
| At the money, wing 2 % | Bearish | 1,965 | 54.6% | -86.2 | -169433.00 | -17.1% | -220784.40 |
| At the money, wing 0.5 % | Stable: ATM call + put | 1,505 | 11.6% | -118.3 | -178104.00 | -155.4% | -206193.40 |
| 1 % out of the money, wing 1 % | Iron condor | 1,632 | 38.2% | -123.0 | -200741.40 | -48.0% | -233273.70 |
| At the money, wing 1 % | Stable: ATM call + put | 1,647 | 18.5% | -148.5 | -244638.40 | -108.7% | -295943.00 |
| At the money, wing 2 % | Stable: ATM call + put | 1,948 | 25.6% | -166.0 | -323344.60 | -58.9% | -419477.00 |
Highest historical totals by ticker and strategy
| Ticker | Strategy | Shape | Trades | Profitable trades | Avg P&L | Total P&L | Return on expiry risk | Stress P&L (−10 % credit) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | Bearish | At the money, wing 2 % | 194 | 65.5% | +31.6 | +6135.60 | +8.9% | +2132.80 |
| SPY | Stable: ATM call + put | At the money, wing 2 % | 194 | 50.0% | +24.0 | +4653.20 | +3.7% | -10971.60 |
| SPY | Bullish | At the money, wing 2 % | 194 | 70.6% | +23.9 | +4633.60 | +2.2% | -1997.40 |
| SPY | Bullish | 1 % out of the money, wing 1 % | 194 | 82.5% | +21.3 | +4124.60 | +3.4% | +1952.70 |
| IWM | Stable: ATM call + put | At the money, wing 2 % | 194 | 53.1% | +20.3 | +3940.20 | +10.3% | -3220.80 |
| IWM | Iron condor | 1 % out of the money, wing 1 % | 194 | 61.9% | +17.4 | +3380.20 | +10.4% | +843.20 |
| IWM | Bearish | 1 % out of the money, wing 1 % | 194 | 77.8% | +11.4 | +2206.60 | +5.1% | +815.20 |
| SPY | Iron condor | 1 % out of the money, wing 1 % | 194 | 65.5% | +11.1 | +2149.20 | +2.2% | -2532.00 |
| IWM | Bearish | At the money, wing 1 % | 194 | 58.8% | +8.2 | +1595.60 | +5.0% | -917.40 |
| IWM | Bullish | 1 % out of the money, wing 1 % | 194 | 76.8% | +6.0 | +1173.60 | +2.6% | +28.00 |
| SPY | Bearish | At the money, wing 1 % | 194 | 54.6% | +5.4 | +1051.60 | +1.3% | -5217.30 |
| SPY | Bearish | At the money, wing 2 % | 194 | 61.3% | +0.2 | +42.60 | +0.0% | -8953.60 |
| SPY | Stable: ATM call + put | At the money, wing 1 % | 194 | 37.1% | -2.6 | -498.80 | -1.3% | -11111.90 |
| SPY | Bullish | At the money, wing 0.5 % | 194 | 63.9% | -6.2 | -1196.40 | -2.6% | -3671.50 |
| SPY | Bullish | At the money, wing 1 % | 194 | 67.5% | -8.0 | -1550.40 | -1.6% | -5894.60 |
By strategy
| Strategy | Trades | Profitable trades | Avg P&L | Total P&L | Return on expiry risk | At $1000 risk per trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bullish
sell put, buy put below
|
1,954 | 58.2% | -78.1 | -152620.40 | -14.5% | -198042.00 * |
Realized P&L by exit date
One contract per trade. Results are recognized at the quoted exit. Open positions are not marked to market, so this is not account equity and does not measure account drawdown.
By ticker
| Ticker | Strategy | Trades | Profitable trades | Avg P&L | Total P&L | Return on expiry risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Bullish | 194 | 66.0% | -9.7 | -1872.40 | -2.5% |
| GLD | Bullish | 194 | 53.1% | -150.4 | -29168.40 | -26.0% |
| IWM | Bullish | 194 | 61.3% | -11.3 | -2195.40 | -2.8% |
| MARA | Bullish | 162 | 43.2% | -33.8 | -5479.20 | -90.4% |
| MSTR | Bullish | 191 | 46.1% | -115.5 | -22056.60 | -61.6% |
| MU | Bullish | 193 | 60.6% | -343.0 | -66190.80 | -35.0% |
| NVDA | Bullish | 194 | 61.9% | -20.8 | -4044.40 | -7.2% |
| QQQ | Bullish | 194 | 65.5% | -33.3 | -6464.40 | -3.5% |
| SOXL | Bullish | 50 | 42.0% | -207.3 | -10363.00 | -86.2% |
| SPY | Bullish | 194 | 70.6% | +23.9 | +4633.60 | +2.2% |
| TSLA | Bullish | 194 | 55.7% | -48.6 | -9419.40 | -10.5% |
How it was computed
Rankings select the highest totals within this same historical period. They are not an independent test of a strategy chosen in advance. Different tickers and scenarios can have different numbers of eligible trades.
The $1000 limit applies to each new trade separately. Simultaneous positions require additional capital. The model does not impose a total account budget, reinvest profits, or include financing costs.
The short strikes target the underlying price at 09:34, or 1 % out of the money; protective strikes are nearest the target wing width. Only standard 100-share contracts available that day are eligible. Missing or invalid entry quotes and invalid structures produce a recorded skip. Missing exit quotes remain unresolved trades.
The overview rankings cover all tickers and shapes for this expiry horizon. The strategy, ticker and chart sections below the filters use the selected ticker, strategy and shape. All sections use the selected price assumption.