SPY / QQQ / VIX · MINUTE HISTORY
Market direction
Does the early move continue into the close? · America/New_York (ET)
06 Sep 2021 — 04 Sep 2026. SPY and QQQ minute evidence is available only from 6 September 2024. The current Massive key denies earlier stock history and VIX index history (HTTP 403). Missing years are not counted as zero reversals.
SPY · Premarket → regular session
Signal: 04:00 → 09:30. Outcome: 09:30 → session close. The overnight gap is not part of the outcome.
| Premarket | Continued into close | Opposite into close | Against signal intraday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both directions | 50.9% | 49.1% 95% CI: 44.7–53.5% | 92.6% |
| Positive premarket | 52.6% | 47.4% 95% CI: 41.7–53.2% | 91.0% |
| Negative premarket | 48.6% | 51.4% 95% CI: 44.7–58.1% | 94.7% |
Session endpoints: 09:30 minute OPEN → 15:59 minute CLOSE (12:59 on short days), excluding the 16:00 closing auction. These differ from daily-bar and options-backtest endpoints.
Intraday means at least one completed minute closed on the opposite side of the 09:30 opening price. The day may then recover. At a zero threshold, tiny crossings count too; this is not a 0.5% stop-loss test and NOT every pullback from a local peak.
Excluded from endpoint comparison: missing signal 3; neutral signal 1; missing outcome 0. Incomplete intraday paths: 0.
Always-up baseline on these same dates: 52.1% (259 / 497).
What happens after 10:00, 12:00 and 14:00?
Compare the move from 09:30 to the checkpoint with the subsequent move from that checkpoint to the close.
| Time / direction so far | Then continued | Then opposite | Day sign flipped at close | Crossed opening price intraday |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00Both directions | 54.3% | 45.7% 95% CI: 41.4–50.1% | 33.9% | 64.7% |
| Up by this time | 57.8% | 42.2% | 33.0% | 64.8% |
| Down by this time | 50.2% | 49.8% | 35.1% | 64.5% |
| 12:00Both directions | 52.5% | 47.3% 95% CI: 43.0–51.7% | 19.8% | 37.5% |
| Up by this time | 54.7% | 45.3% | 19.5% | 36.7% |
| Down by this time | 50.0% | 49.6% | 20.1% | 38.5% |
| 14:00Both directions | 50.2% | 49.2% 95% CI: 44.8–53.6% | 13.9% | 24.0% |
| Up by this time | 50.8% | 48.9% | 14.4% | 23.5% |
| Down by this time | 49.6% | 49.6% | 13.4% | 24.6% |
The last column requires a future minute close beyond the opening price against the signal. It can be higher than the day-end reversal rate because a temporary crossing may recover.
10:00 · excluded: missing signal 0, neutral signal 0, missing outcome 0, session already closed 0; incomplete paths 0. Subsequent rise on matched dates: 54.1%.
12:00 · excluded: missing signal 0, neutral signal 0, missing outcome 0, session already closed 0; incomplete paths 0. Subsequent rise on matched dates: 52.3%.
14:00 · excluded: missing signal 0, neutral signal 0, missing outcome 0, session already closed 5; incomplete paths 0. Subsequent rise on matched dates: 50.2%.
Does activity fade at midday?
Volume and price range per minute, not unequal interval totals. Only complete 390-minute sessions.
| Interval (ET) | Share of session volume | Volume/min vs day average | Mean minute high–low range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30–10:00 | 12.1% | 1.57× | 0.071% |
| 10:00–12:00 | 28.8% | 0.94× | 0.054% |
| 12:00–14:00 | 20.1% | 0.65× | 0.043% |
| 14:00–16:00 | 39.0% | 1.27× | 0.043% |
Each day has equal weight. 1× = its average regular-session volume/minute. Range = (high − low) / minute open. Excluded short/incomplete sessions: 5. The 16:00 closing auction and after-hours are not measured here. Lower volume does not mean that price cannot move or that direction is easier to predict.
SPY · Opposite subsequent move, by year
All years in the requested window; the selected premarket definition and neutral band apply. Counts are event / eligible sessions.
| Year / coverage | After premarket | After 10:00 | After 12:00 | After 14:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 54.4% | 44.4% | 50.6% | 50.6% |
| 2025 | 48.4% | 45.2% | 45.6% | 49.0% |
| 2026 | 47.6% | 47.1% | 48.2% | 48.8% |
Methodology, exclusions and sources
Prices: Massive unadjusted 1-minute OHLC. Premarket: OPEN of 04:00 minute → CLOSE of 09:29. Regular session: OPEN of 09:30 → CLOSE of 15:59 (12:59 on early closes). Overnight mode starts at the final regular minute of the immediately preceding exchange session.
The 16:00 closing auction is not included. These are minute-window statistics, not daily OHLC or the 09:35–15:45 options-backtest window; their rates can differ. Checkpoints use only completed 09:59, 11:59 and 13:59 bars, never the future 10:00/12:00/14:00 bars.
Direction thresholds apply to both the earlier signal and subsequent outcome. Neutral signals are excluded. Known neutral outcomes stay in the denominator: continued + opposite + neutral = 100%. Missing endpoints are excluded explicitly; gaps are never filled with a nearby minute. Incomplete intraday paths are unknown, not “no reversal”.
Time is New York local time, with DST, exchange holidays and scheduled early closes. At 14:00, a 13:00-close session is excluded as not applicable. Intraday crossings use completed minute closes, not highs/lows or tick-by-tick stop execution.
95% Wilson intervals are descriptive references assuming independent observations; market days are not necessarily independent. Small samples, repeated comparisons and prior research on this same period limit conclusions. Historical direction frequencies do not establish a profitable options strategy.
Frozen snapshot as of 06 Sep 2026 · last session 04 Sep 2026 · ID 8b6dd0358c7c.
Not a live forecast; this snapshot does not update automatically. SHA-256 checked source pages; existing backtests are unchanged.
Massive: stock minute aggregates · Massive: index history begins 2023-02-14 · Cboe: VIX calculation and trading hours