QQQ · Calendar straddles

Daily sales / 4-week protection · 100 CALL + 100 PUT on each side. Starting capital $1,000,000.

06 Jan 2025 — 10 Sep 2026 · entry at 09:35 New York on the first trading session; exits 15 minutes before the actual session close. The monthly horizon means four calendar weeks; this is a frozen historical test.

CSV: cyclessale periodstradesdaily equitysignals
Control mode — the long pair keeps its entry strike; no future prices in any decision. Buys at ask, sales at bid, $0.65 per contract per operation. Volume of 100 contracts is computed from quotes; execution of the whole volume is not confirmed. Method and limitations ↓
The account has a data or cash break. P&L and drawdown cover only known valuations through 08 Apr 2025. Later cycles are excluded from confirmed results. insufficient_cash · 2025-04-09 15:45 · cash available $316,050.00 · required for the model group $464,030.00
Account P&L after fees−$310,820through the last confirmed valuation 08 Apr 2025
Last confirmed valuation$689,18008 Apr 2025 · from $1,000,000 · P&L / initial capital -31.08 %
Closed cycles / profitable3 / 33.3 %sale periods positive 31 / 57
Average gain / loss per cycle+$120,105 / −$218,838best +$120,105 · worst −$354,835
Max daily drawdown−$622,515-58.99 % · 27 Jan 2025 → 05 Mar 2025
Long rolls · closed cycles0roll cash flows $0 · nets 0
Short / long / fees−$194,800 / −$107,300fees $15,470 · closed cycles, before fees
Coverage3 closed · 1 open · 0 skipped · 18 unresolvedconfirmed through 08 Apr 2025 · break: insufficient_cash 2025-03-31 · closed-cycle operations below quoted size 146 / 240 · stale quotes 19

Modes on the same closed cycles · 3

Account columns share the final known date: 08 Apr 2025.

The first column adds up only cycles closed in every variant; "all" is each variant's own coverage. All four rows use the selected maturity pair. Coverage differences are not a roll effect; account drawdown and return use the selected calendar period.

ModeOracle thresholdP&L, common cyclesP&L, all closedClosed / plannedProfitableRollsMax daily drawdownP&L / initial capital
No long roll · control—−$317,570−$317,5703 / 2233.3 %0−$622,515 · -59.0 %-31.08 %
Oracle · next period known0 %+$46,150+$81,74021 / 2252.4 %175−$256,815 · -20.8 %+19.36 %
Oracle · next period known1 %−$325,970−$664,30514 / 2235.7 %19−$538,175 · -51.0 %-17.85 %
Oracle · next period known2 %−$317,570−$317,5703 / 2233.3 %0−$622,515 · -59.0 %-42.55 %

Three maturity pairs · the same account calendar

Common final valuation date: 08 Apr 2025.

The same selected mode and costs, each starting with $1M. Cycle lengths differ, so this compares account changes over the calendar period, not matching cycle IDs. Account values stop at the common final date. Closed/planned counts cover each pair’s full available history in the selected period, without truncation at that date.

Sale / protectionAccount P&LEnd equityMax drawdownClosed / planned · full selected historyValuation coverage
Daily sales / weekly protection−$228,130$771,870−$469,55062 / 8806 Jan 2025 → 08 Apr 2025missing valuations: 0 · confirmed through 13 Mar 2026
Weekly sales / 4-week protection−$241,690$758,310−$632,29511 / 2206 Jan 2025 → 08 Apr 2025missing valuations: 0 · confirmed through 07 Nov 2025
Daily sales / 4-week protection−$310,820$689,180−$622,5153 / 2206 Jan 2025 → 08 Apr 2025missing valuations: 0 · confirmed through 08 Apr 2025

Account equity

Daily, 15 minutes before the close: cash plus open positions, longs at bid and shorts at ask, from $1,000,000. Selected mode against its same-horizon control. Missing valuations break the line; dashed segments are outside confirmed coverage.

Days without a confirmed valuation: 357 · valuations on a stale quote: 0 · minimum cash $179,780 · largest model outlay $820,220 · no broker buying-power check.

Cycles · 22

All times New York · cash amounts for all 100 contracts
CycleQQQProtectionSale periodsShortLongCostsResultDetails
06 Jan 2025 → 31 Jan 2025long expiry 31 Jan 2025 · closed In 525.17
Out 521.54
525.0100 Call + 100 Put 525.0 / 525.0 / 515.0 / …06 Jan 2025 → 31 Jan 2025 · periods: 18 +$91,000 −$168,900 $4,940bid/ask −$82,840closed cumulative −$82,840 · equity $917,160
03 Feb 2025 → 28 Feb 2025long expiry 28 Feb 2025 · closed In 513.68
Out 504.09
514.0100 Call + 100 Put 514.0 / 519.0 / 522.0 / …03 Feb 2025 → 28 Feb 2025 · periods: 19 −$212,000 −$137,700 $5,135bid/ask −$354,835closed cumulative −$437,675 · equity $562,325
03 Mar 2025 → 28 Mar 2025long expiry 28 Mar 2025 · closed In 512.25
Out 468.38
512.0100 Call + 100 Put 512.0 / 493.0 / 496.0 / …03 Mar 2025 → 28 Mar 2025 · periods: 20 −$73,800 +$199,300 $5,395bid/ask +$120,105closed cumulative −$317,570 · equity $682,430
31 Mar 2025 → 25 Apr 2025long expiry 25 Apr 2025 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 458.68
Out 471.28
460.0100 Call + 100 Put 460.0 / 467.0 / 468.0 / …31 Mar 2025 → 25 Apr 2025 · periods: 19 −$528,200 −$158,200 $5,200bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$691,600 · closed cumulative −$317,570
28 Apr 2025 → 23 May 2025long expiry 23 May 2025 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 471.74
Out 510.83
472.0100 Call + 100 Put 472.0 / 471.0 / 467.0 / …28 Apr 2025 → 23 May 2025 · periods: 20 +$272,300 +$102,500 $5,395bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L +$369,405 · closed cumulative −$317,570
27 May 2025 → 20 Jun 2025long expiry 20 Jun 2025 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 515.59
Out 526.11
516.0100 Call + 100 Put 516.0 / 523.0 / 525.0 / …27 May 2025 → 20 Jun 2025 · periods: 18 +$80,700 −$132,500 $4,940bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$56,740 · closed cumulative −$317,570
23 Jun 2025 → 18 Jul 2025long expiry 18 Jul 2025 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 524.76
Out 560.86
525.0100 Call + 100 Put 525.0 / 537.0 / 543.0 / …23 Jun 2025 → 18 Jul 2025 · periods: 19 +$78,000 +$128,600 $5,200bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L +$201,400 · closed cumulative −$317,570
21 Jul 2025 → 15 Aug 2025long expiry 15 Aug 2025 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 563.14
Out 577.64
563.0100 Call + 100 Put 563.0 / 563.0 / 561.0 / …21 Jul 2025 → 15 Aug 2025 · periods: 20 −$1,600 −$53,900 $5,460bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$60,960 · closed cumulative −$317,570
18 Aug 2025 → 12 Sep 2025long expiry 12 Sep 2025 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 577.55
Out 586.75
578.0100 Call + 100 Put 578.0 / 574.0 / 567.0 / …18 Aug 2025 → 12 Sep 2025 · periods: 19 +$124,800 −$102,400 $5,200bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L +$17,200 · closed cumulative −$317,570
15 Sep 2025 → 10 Oct 2025long expiry 10 Oct 2025 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 589.01
Out 592.73
589.0100 Call + 100 Put 589.0 / 592.0 / 591.0 / …15 Sep 2025 → 10 Oct 2025 · periods: 20 −$97,800 −$155,200 $5,460bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$258,460 · closed cumulative −$317,570
13 Oct 2025 → 07 Nov 2025long expiry 07 Nov 2025 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 598.08
Out 608.94
598.0100 Call + 100 Put 598.0 / 593.0 / 603.0 / …13 Oct 2025 → 07 Nov 2025 · periods: 20 +$72,300 −$167,100 $5,460bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$100,260 · closed cumulative −$317,570
10 Nov 2025 → 05 Dec 2025long expiry 05 Dec 2025 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 619.67
Out 625.40
620.0100 Call + 100 Put 620.0 / 621.0 / 622.0 / …10 Nov 2025 → 05 Dec 2025 · periods: 19 −$75,200 −$209,400 $5,200bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$289,800 · closed cumulative −$317,570
08 Dec 2025 → 02 Jan 2026long expiry 02 Jan 2026 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 628.10
Out 613.21
628.0100 Call + 100 Put 628.0 / 622.0 / 623.0 / …08 Dec 2025 → 02 Jan 2026 · periods: 18 −$66,700 −$91,500 $4,875bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$163,075 · closed cumulative −$317,570
05 Jan 2026 → 30 Jan 2026long expiry 30 Jan 2026 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 617.98
Out 621.22
618.0100 Call + 100 Put 618.0 / 619.0 / 624.0 / …05 Jan 2026 → 30 Jan 2026 · periods: 19 −$11,600 −$198,700 $5,200bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$215,500 · closed cumulative −$317,570
02 Feb 2026 → 27 Feb 2026long expiry 27 Feb 2026 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 621.03
Out 605.92
621.0100 Call + 100 Put 621.0 / 627.0 / 613.0 / …02 Feb 2026 → 27 Feb 2026 · periods: 19 −$10,500 −$119,600 $5,135bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$135,235 · closed cumulative −$317,570
02 Mar 2026 → 27 Mar 2026long expiry 27 Mar 2026 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 603.49
Out 562.60
603.0100 Call + 100 Put 603.0 / 596.0 / 607.0 / …02 Mar 2026 → 27 Mar 2026 · periods: 20 +$63,400 +$85,600 $5,395bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L +$143,605 · closed cumulative −$317,570
30 Mar 2026 → 24 Apr 2026long expiry 24 Apr 2026 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 566.26
Out 663.51
566.0100 Call + 100 Put 566.0 / 566.0 / 583.0 / …30 Mar 2026 → 24 Apr 2026 · periods: 19 −$125,500 +$617,600 $5,135bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L +$486,965 · closed cumulative −$317,570
27 Apr 2026 → 22 May 2026long expiry 22 May 2026 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 662.44
Out 717.62
662.0100 Call + 100 Put 662.0 / 657.0 / 657.0 / …27 Apr 2026 → 22 May 2026 · periods: 20 +$213,900 +$236,200 $5,395bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L +$444,705 · closed cumulative −$317,570
26 May 2026 → 18 Jun 2026long expiry 18 Jun 2026 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 724.76
Out 740.89
725.0100 Call + 100 Put 725.0 / 732.0 / 729.0 / …26 May 2026 → 18 Jun 2026 · periods: 18 −$299,200 −$150,400 $4,940bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$454,540 · closed cumulative −$317,570
22 Jun 2026 → 17 Jul 2026long expiry 17 Jul 2026 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 741.12
Out 696.12
741.0100 Call + 100 Put 741.0 / 717.0 / 718.0 / …22 Jun 2026 → 17 Jul 2026 · periods: 19 +$37,900 +$54,800 $5,135bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L +$87,565 · closed cumulative −$317,570
20 Jul 2026 → 14 Aug 2026long expiry 14 Aug 2026 · outside confirmed account · account_break In 704.36
Out 730.16
704.0100 Call + 100 Put 704.0 / 705.0 / 705.0 / …20 Jul 2026 → 14 Aug 2026 · periods: 20 −$112,900 −$132,600 $5,395bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L −$250,895 · closed cumulative −$317,570
17 Aug 2026 → 11 Sep 2026long expiry 11 Sep 2026 · open at range end In 732.40 732.0100 Call + 100 Put 732.0 / 720.0 / 720.0 / …17 Aug 2026 → 11 Sep 2026 · periods: 19 +$294,000 −$288,800 $4,810bid/ask —cash flow, not P&L +$390 · closed cumulative −$317,570
Method, assumptions, coverage and limitations

Maturities and entry. Each leg has 100 contracts, multiplier 100. The long ATM CALL + PUT is bought at the nearest common strike, ties to the lower strike. Daily/weekly cycles span one calendar week; both monthly variants span four calendar weeks, without resetting cash. A holiday moves the first entry to the first available session at 09:35 New York. The long expiry is the final trading session of the cycle.

Sale periods. Each daily short straddle is opened at 09:35 and closed 15 minutes before that same session closes (morning 0DTE). The short leg is absent overnight; remaining long protection stays open. The number of sales follows the actual exchange sessions. When long and short refer to the same contract, a sale reduces the long position (NET). It is not counted as an independent long and short. At the final close all remaining long positions are sold at bid; a valid zero-bid OTM long is waived without a sale or commission. Actual timestamps and contract expiries are in the ledger.

Control and oracle. The default no_long_roll keeps the original long strike and makes no decision from a future price. The optional oracle_next_period compares the last non-flat direction with the next sale period’s direction, obtained from a future closing price. An opposite direction beyond the 0%, 1% or 2% threshold can trigger a long roll at the decision-time bid/ask; a roll before the final same-expiry period is disallowed. The threshold is a return per sale interval: daily and weekly 1% thresholds have different scales. It has no effect in the control. The signal ledger records decision time, future-data time, and whether future data was used. This oracle comparison cannot be traded and is not a guaranteed optimum.

Data and fills. Massive historical NBBO, as-of option contract references and frozen underlying minute bars · XNYS (exchange_calendars). QQQ uses the last completed minute bar at the decision. Options use the last same-session NBBO at or before the moment. Quotes older than 60 seconds are flagged stale. Every buy pays ask and every sale receives bid; quoted size below the requested quantity is counted, without proving a complete fill. The stress cost adds $0.01 per share against every executed side, with sales floored at zero.

Account and attribution. Premium received is a cash flow, not profit. Daily equity is cash + long bids − short asks at the actual close minus 15 minutes; closing-fee reserves are separate. Calendar-year account P&L includes all positions carried into the year. Cycle tables are selected by the planned cycle start year, so cycles crossing New Year need not sum to calendar-year account P&L. Period boundaries include changes in the long position, including overnight changes for daily sales. A cycle’s equity column is its cumulative P&L, while the account begins with $1M. Capital is not reset; no broker margin/buying-power, early assignment or share delivery is modelled; interest, taxes and withdrawals are zero.

Coverage. 421 sessions 06 Jan 2025 — 10 Sep 2026 · planned cycles 22 · closed 3 · open at range end 1 · skipped 0 · unresolved 18 · account confirmed through 08 Apr 2025. Both years were examined in earlier research; a favourable number here is not an out-of-sample edge, and the future-informed comparison cannot be traded.

Calculation qqq_calendar_v1 · config 5ee6d8548a358561 · snapshot f5f34b81ccc1d3bf · frozen 2026-09-11 · API calls at build 0