Pogosov
Market closed · Pre-market opens in
EN|RU
--:--:--NY

← COMPANIES · NVDA

NVIDIA (NVDA): what moved the stock and when it became known

From January 2025 to October 2026 NVDA moved beyond the market by much more than usual on 43 days and over one week. For each case: what happened, where and when the first trace appeared, and when the price moved. The aim is to see which information could have been seen before the market.

Cases43 days + 1 week31 episodes
Trace days ahead5episodes
The evening or night before10episodes
Same time as the price5episodes
Date known in advance5episodes

Move beyond the market, cumulative

The sum of the daily moves of NVDA beyond its usual link to QQQ, from January 2025. Triangles are the cases: up for a rise, down for a fall; select one to open its card.

Cumulative move beyond the market, %−20%−10%0%+10%+20%Jan 25Apr 25Jul 25Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 2602.01.2025: +3.9% — CES 2025 run-up and BofA's top pick27.01.2025: −13.6% — DeepSeek R1: a cheap Chinese model sinks NVDA28.01.2025: +7.0% — DeepSeek R1: a cheap Chinese model sinks NVDA29.01.2025: −4.3% — DeepSeek R1: a cheap Chinese model sinks NVDA31.01.2025: −3.9% — DeepSeek R1: a cheap Chinese model sinks NVDA05.02.2025: +5.0% — Alphabet's $75B capex07.02.2025: +3.9% — Alphabet's $75B capex03.03.2025: −5.2% — Post-earnings selloff and tariffs12.03.2025: +4.9% — Analysts: ‘buy ahead of GTC’04.04.2025: +4.9% — Tariff crash: NVDA fell less than usual25.06.2025: +4.5% — Loop Capital's $250 target and a record15.07.2025: +4.5% — H20 sales to China resume05.09.2025: −3.4% — Broadcom and OpenAI's own chip10.09.2025: +4.4% — Oracle's cloud backlog22.09.2025: +3.7% — Nvidia to invest up to $100B in OpenAI14.10.2025: −3.9% — Broadcom advances, China tension28.10.2025: +4.4% — GTC Washington: $500B of bookings and $5 trillion29.10.2025: +2.7% — GTC Washington: $500B of bookings and $5 trillion05.11.2025: −3.1% — AI bubble, Burry's bet and the Blackwell ban for China10.11.2025: +2.9% — A rebound and SoftBank's exit from Nvidia11.11.2025: −3.0% — A rebound and SoftBank's exit from Nvidia25.11.2025: −4.0% — Google TPUs: Meta weighs Google's chips28.11.2025: −3.4% — Google TPUs: Meta weighs Google's chips02.02.2026: −4.4% — WSJ: the $100B OpenAI investment stalls06.02.2026: +5.5% — Alphabet's and Amazon's capex after the selloff26.02.2026: −4.3% — Q4 report: a record, but not enough27.02.2026: −4.2% — Q4 report: a record, but not enough27.04.2026: +4.4% — A rise without a clear cause30.04.2026: −6.6% — Google to sell its TPUs06.05.2026: +3.6% — AMD's report and the Corning deal14.05.2026: +4.0% — H200 for China: Huang on Trump's trip01.06.2026: +6.1% — Computex: an AI chip for PCs03.06.2026: −3.7% — Computex: an AI chip for PCs07.07.2026: +3.1% — The July rebound: H200 for China08.07.2026: +3.6% — The July rebound: H200 for China10.07.2026: +4.0% — The July rebound: H200 for China14.07.2026: +3.1% — The July rebound: H200 for China22.07.2026: +3.2% — A rebound after the Kimi K3 scare27.07.2026: −5.1% — WSJ: a $250B guarantee for OpenAI05.08.2026: +4.9% — SpaceX to use Nvidia chips only27.08.2026: +7.9% — Q2 report and a pause in cloud deals28.08.2026: −4.3% — Q2 report and a pause in cloud deals02.09.2026: +3.3% — Dell's report and the Hugging Face dealCumulative move beyond the market, %−20%−10%0%+10%+20%Jan 25Jul 25Jan 26Jul 2602.01.2025: +3.9% — CES 2025 run-up and BofA's top pick27.01.2025: −13.6% — DeepSeek R1: a cheap Chinese model sinks NVDA28.01.2025: +7.0% — DeepSeek R1: a cheap Chinese model sinks NVDA29.01.2025: −4.3% — DeepSeek R1: a cheap Chinese model sinks NVDA31.01.2025: −3.9% — DeepSeek R1: a cheap Chinese model sinks NVDA05.02.2025: +5.0% — Alphabet's $75B capex07.02.2025: +3.9% — Alphabet's $75B capex03.03.2025: −5.2% — Post-earnings selloff and tariffs12.03.2025: +4.9% — Analysts: ‘buy ahead of GTC’04.04.2025: +4.9% — Tariff crash: NVDA fell less than usual25.06.2025: +4.5% — Loop Capital's $250 target and a record15.07.2025: +4.5% — H20 sales to China resume05.09.2025: −3.4% — Broadcom and OpenAI's own chip10.09.2025: +4.4% — Oracle's cloud backlog22.09.2025: +3.7% — Nvidia to invest up to $100B in OpenAI14.10.2025: −3.9% — Broadcom advances, China tension28.10.2025: +4.4% — GTC Washington: $500B of bookings and $5 trillion29.10.2025: +2.7% — GTC Washington: $500B of bookings and $5 trillion05.11.2025: −3.1% — AI bubble, Burry's bet and the Blackwell ban for China10.11.2025: +2.9% — A rebound and SoftBank's exit from Nvidia11.11.2025: −3.0% — A rebound and SoftBank's exit from Nvidia25.11.2025: −4.0% — Google TPUs: Meta weighs Google's chips28.11.2025: −3.4% — Google TPUs: Meta weighs Google's chips02.02.2026: −4.4% — WSJ: the $100B OpenAI investment stalls06.02.2026: +5.5% — Alphabet's and Amazon's capex after the selloff26.02.2026: −4.3% — Q4 report: a record, but not enough27.02.2026: −4.2% — Q4 report: a record, but not enough27.04.2026: +4.4% — A rise without a clear cause30.04.2026: −6.6% — Google to sell its TPUs06.05.2026: +3.6% — AMD's report and the Corning deal14.05.2026: +4.0% — H200 for China: Huang on Trump's trip01.06.2026: +6.1% — Computex: an AI chip for PCs03.06.2026: −3.7% — Computex: an AI chip for PCs07.07.2026: +3.1% — The July rebound: H200 for China08.07.2026: +3.6% — The July rebound: H200 for China10.07.2026: +4.0% — The July rebound: H200 for China14.07.2026: +3.1% — The July rebound: H200 for China22.07.2026: +3.2% — A rebound after the Kimi K3 scare27.07.2026: −5.1% — WSJ: a $250B guarantee for OpenAI05.08.2026: +4.9% — SpaceX to use Nvidia chips only27.08.2026: +7.9% — Q2 report and a pause in cloud deals28.08.2026: −4.3% — Q2 report and a pause in cloud deals02.09.2026: +3.3% — Dell's report and the Hugging Face deal

What the cases show

  1. Most often the information came out in the evening or at night, after the close and before the open (10 of 31 episodes): customers' and rivals' reports, evening scoops by the WSJ and The Information, overnight Reuters exclusives. The price moved on it after hours and before the open.
  2. Customers' and rivals' reports are the main source of NVDA's own moves (7 episodes): the capex of Alphabet and Amazon, Oracle, Broadcom, AMD, SpaceX, Dell. Their dates are known in advance. Five more are its own reports and events (GTC, Computex).
  3. In 5 episodes the trace came days ahead: DeepSeek (Hacker News and Wikipedia 2–7 days ahead), exports to China (Huang's visit and briefing, the trip with Trump), Google's TPUs (Ironwood, Gemini 3, the eighth-generation TPUs).
  4. In 5 episodes the news and the price came at the same time (the $100B OpenAI announcement, morning analyst notes): only speed helps there.
  5. The original source beats the reprints: on 24 Nov 2025 the price moved at 17:55 while the first reprint of The Information's scoop in the archive came at 18:38; on 8 Jul 2026 the price moved at 10:57, the Reuters reprint at 11:05.
  6. No cause was found in 4 episodes and one more is uncertain (the rebound after Kimi K3); another is a market-wide day (the tariff crash), not NVDA news.

What a tracking system needs

  • A calendar of customers' and rivals' reports and a read of their calls in the evening.
  • Evening and overnight monitoring of the original sources: the WSJ, The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, the FT. Our Telegram feeds catch them within seconds.
  • A journal of the company's stories: exports to China, TPUs and customers' own chips, OpenAI financing, Chinese models.
  • Tech-community attention only as a hint: a Hacker News rule did not tell AI shocks from noise (the check below); Wikipedia and the App Store were not checked.

When the first trace appeared

  • Trace days ahead5
  • The evening or night before10
  • Same time as the price5
  • Date known in advance5
  • Unclear5
  • No news1

What kind of event

  • A customer's or rival's report7
  • Competition and AI models4
  • Investors and analysts4
  • Cause not found4
  • Own report3
  • Exports and policy3
  • Own event2
  • Media scoop2
  • Company announcement1
  • Market-wide day1

Counts of episodes; neighbouring days of one story are one episode.

Checked on every day, not only on the cases

The cards were picked by the price move, so they cannot show how often the same trace came to nothing. Here each hypothesis is a mechanical rule applied to every session or night; the rules were fixed before looking at the results. A cell gives the share of signals followed by a large NVDA move beyond the market (2σ or more) and the same share without the signal. NVDA's own report days are left out; headlines run to 11 Sep 2026, the end of the archive.

Hypothesis and rule 20262025 Verdict
A customer's or rival's report

A report of a customer (MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL) or of a rival or supplier (AVGO, AMD, MU, MRVL, TSM, ASML, DELL) → a large NVDA move on the session that reacts to it.

2026 17% 5 of 29 without the signal 7%
2025 16% 6 of 37 without the signal 8%

Holds, but weakly: about twice the usual chance of a large day, and 1.5 times in 2022–2024, which the hypothesis never saw. Five reports in six pass without a large NVDA move. The rule says when, not which way.

2022–2024, out of sample: 14% (13 of 96) against 9% without the signal.
An overnight headline with scoop words

Between 16:00 and 09:30 the archive has a title with “Nvidia” and the words exclusive, sources, report, according to, WSJ, The Information, FT, Bloomberg, Nikkei (earnings titles out) → a large move from the close to the open.

2026 15% 13 of 89 without the signal 9%
2025 16% 20 of 129 without the signal 11%

Weak: large moves are 1.5 times as frequent on such nights, but such a headline comes every other night, and after the first one the price moves to the open only a little more than at a random moment of an ordinary night.

Nights with such a headline: 89 of 165 in 2026, 129 of 238 in 2025. From the first headline to the open, the price went 0.31σ against 0.25σ at a random moment (2025: 0.39σ against 0.28σ).
A Reuters exclusive about Nvidia

A Reuters “Exclusive” title with “Nvidia”, at any time → an NVDA move beyond the market of 2σ or more from the title to the close.

2026 10% 1 of 10 at a random moment 4%
2025 11% 2 of 19 at a random moment 5%

Not shown: after 3 exclusives of 29 the price moved 2σ or more — more often than at a random moment, but too few to tell from chance. Most exclusives were about sales to China and the price hardly moved after them: the meaning of the news matters, not the label.

Attention on Hacker News

A story about AI models or chips with 1,000+ points → a large NVDA day within the next three sessions.

2026 26% 19 of 72 without the signal 24%
2025 27% 12 of 44 without the signal 22%

No: such stories are frequent, and a large NVDA day follows them as often as it does without them. A mechanical rule does not tell DeepSeek from this noise.

Days with such a story: 72 of 172 in 2026, 44 of 230 in 2025. Stories about chips (500+ points): a large day followed 1 of 12 in 2026, 3 of 13 in 2025.

What it means

  • Of the four rules only the calendar of customers' and rivals' reports holds: it tells which evenings to be ready, not the direction.
  • For unscheduled information the signal is not the headline itself or a burst of attention, but what the news says and when it first appeared. That needs a judgement of importance and the original source in real time. The archive cannot test it — it holds reprints, late; the test can only run forward, on our own feed with exact receipt times.

Cases, newest first

Dell's report and the Hugging Face deal

A customer's or rival's report The evening or night before First trace ahead of the price by 14 h

Dell reported AI-server growth (1 Sep after the close), and on the evening of 1 Sep Bloomberg wrote Nvidia was near a $14B deal with Hugging Face. Half the move came by 09:49.

02.09.2026 ▲ +3.3% beyond the market NVDA +3.2% · QQQ +0.2% · z +2.1 half of the move by 02.09 09:49 · before the open 25%
16:004:009:3016:00+3.2%
  1. Backdrop Bloomberg Nvidia to invest $3.5 billion in MediaTek
  2. First trace Bloomberg Nvidia nears a $14 billion Hugging Face deal
  3. News Stocktwits Dell jumps pre-market: the ‘most bullish’ AI report since Nvidia's

Lesson. A customer's report and an evening scoop the day before.

Q2 report and a pause in cloud deals

Own report Date known in advance

A $96.2B quarter with a 70% growth outlook (26 Aug after the close): +8.7%, half of it already after hours. On the evening of 27 Aug the WSJ wrote that Nvidia was pausing revenue-sharing deals with AI clouds (antitrust risks); on 28 Aug the stock fell in the regular session, along with Marvell after its report.

27.08.2026 ▲ +7.9% beyond the market NVDA +8.7% · QQQ +1.4% · z +5.2 · report half of the move by 26.08 17:07 · before the open 77%
16:004:009:3016:00+6.2%
28.08.2026 ▼ −4.3% beyond the market NVDA −4.6% · QQQ −0.6% · z −2.8 half of the move by 28.08 11:12 · before the open 0%
16:004:009:3016:00−3.6%
  1. News Stocktwits Beats on all metrics, 70% FY28 growth — up 5% after hours
  2. News Bloomberg Nvidia adds $442 billion in the second-biggest stock surge ever
  3. First trace Reuters WSJ: Nvidia pauses revenue-sharing deals with AI cloud companies
  4. News MT Newswires The pause is over antitrust concerns

Lesson. The report: the date was known; the next day an evening WSJ scoop.

SpaceX to use Nvidia chips only

A customer's or rival's report The evening or night before

On SpaceX's report (4 Aug after the close) Musk said SpaceX would use Nvidia chips exclusively; AMD, which reported the same evening, fell. Half of NVDA's move was done by 17:15 the evening before.

05.08.2026 ▲ +4.9% beyond the market NVDA +3.4% · QQQ −0.9% · z +3.3 half of the move by 04.08 17:15 · before the open 41%
16:004:009:3016:00+5.4%
  1. Backdrop Stocktwits Musk calls a report of a $52B Foxconn–Nvidia order ‘fake news’
  2. First trace Stocktwits After SpaceX's results: Musk's Nvidia bet takes center stage
  3. News Business Insider SpaceX and Nvidia take their relationship exclusive
  4. News Yahoo Finance Nvidia rises after Musk says SpaceX will exclusively use its chips

Lesson. A customer's call after the close.

WSJ: a $250B guarantee for OpenAI

Media scoop The evening or night before First trace ahead of the price by 14 h

On Sunday evening the WSJ wrote that Nvidia was in talks to guarantee $250B of financing for OpenAI's Ohio data center; with the $500B SK Group partnership it raised balance-sheet worries. The move came right after the open.

27.07.2026 ▼ −5.1% beyond the market NVDA −5.0% · QQQ −0.3% · z −3.6 half of the move by 27.07 09:41 · before the open 17%
16:004:009:3016:00−4.7%
  1. Backdrop Tom's Hardware Nvidia and SK Group enter a $500 billion AI partnership
  2. First trace Reuters WSJ: Nvidia in talks to guarantee $250B financing for OpenAI's data center
  3. News Stocktwits ORCL jumps overnight on the report
  4. News Investing.com Nvidia slips 4% as the AI spending spree triggers balance-sheet jitters

Lesson. A Sunday-evening scoop, about 14 hours before the open.

A rebound after the Kimi K3 scare

Competition and AI models Unclear Cause uncertain

The cause is uncertain. A week earlier China's Moonshot released Kimi K3 (on HN on 19 Jul: ‘subscriptions suspended due to demand’, 284 points) and chips fell; on 22 Jul NVDA rebounded while Nvidia touted Vera Rubin ahead of AMD's event.

22.07.2026 ▲ +3.2% beyond the market NVDA +2.3% · QQQ −0.5% · z +2.2 half of the move by 22.07 11:05 · before the open 11%
16:004:009:3016:00+3.0%
  1. Backdrop Hacker News Moonshot AI suspends new subscriptions due to Kimi K3 demand — 284 points
  2. Backdrop Investing.com Vera Rubin chips enter full production
  3. News Motley Fool Buy the dip? Why China's Kimi model is great news for Nvidia

Lesson. A new Chinese model — the DeepSeek story again, on a smaller scale.

The July rebound: H200 for China

Exports and policy Same time as the price

After the July selloff (a report of a Kyber rack delay, which Nvidia denied) NVDA rebounded. On 7 Jul QQQ fell 1.9% (SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100) while NVDA held. On 8 Jul The Information wrote China would let top AI firms buy H200: the price moved at 10:57, the Reuters reprint came at 11:05. 14 Jul: a Reuters exclusive on H200 licences (ZTE). 10 Jul: cause not found.

07.07.2026 ▲ +3.1% beyond the market NVDA +0.7% · QQQ −1.9% · z +2.1 half of the move by 07.07 11:16 · before the open −2%
16:004:009:3016:00+3.1%
08.07.2026 ▲ +3.6% beyond the market NVDA +3.7% · QQQ +0.3% · z +2.5 half of the move by 08.07 10:57 · before the open −4%
16:004:009:3016:00+2.8%
10.07.2026 ▲ +4.0% beyond the market NVDA +4.0% · QQQ +0.3% · z +2.7 half of the move by 10.07 09:50 · before the open 2%
16:004:009:3016:00+3.2%
14.07.2026 ▲ +3.1% beyond the market NVDA +4.1% · QQQ +1.1% · z +2.0 · CPI/NFP/FOMC day half of the move by 14.07 11:58 · before the open 31%
16:004:009:3016:00+2.1%
  1. Backdrop Quartz The Kyber NVL144 rack reportedly delayed to 2028
  2. Backdrop Yahoo Finance Nvidia denies the delay report
  3. News Reuters The Information: China plans to let top AI firms buy limited H200 chips
  4. News Reuters Exclusive: ZTE among Chinese firms licensed to buy H200

Lesson. The original source (The Information) beats the reprints: the price moved before Reuters.

Computex: an AI chip for PCs

Own event Date known in advance First trace ahead of the price by 3 days

At Computex in Taipei (the keynote on the evening of 31 May New York time) Nvidia and Microsoft showed an AI chip for Windows PCs. Despite new export curbs NVDA rose from the open. 3 Jun: cause not found.

01.06.2026 ▲ +6.1% beyond the market NVDA +6.3% · QQQ +0.6% · z +4.0 half of the move by 01.06 09:30 · before the open 45%
16:004:009:3016:00+5.5%
03.06.2026 ▼ −3.7% beyond the market NVDA −3.6% · QQQ −0.3% · z −2.4 half of the move by 03.06 09:41 · before the open 22%
16:004:009:3016:00−2.4%
  1. First trace Reuters At Computex, Nvidia and Taiwan take centre stage
  2. News Reuters Nvidia launches a chip to bring AI directly to PCs
  3. News Stocktwits Qualcomm slides pre-market as Nvidia's Computex blitz overshadows it
  4. Backdrop Reuters Marvell at a record after Huang calls it the ‘next trillion-dollar company’

Lesson. The event date was known; the content came the evening before the open.

A report met with a shrug; money went to other chips

Own report Date known in advance

The 20 May report (a beat and an $80B buyback) met a shrug, and over the week NVDA lagged the market by 9.5%: chips rose but not Nvidia — money went into memory and other AI chips.

20.05–27.05.2026 (5 sessions) ▼ −9.5% beyond the market NVDA −3.6% · QQQ +4.0% · z −2.8 · report Report reaction 21.05: half of the move by 20.05 16:21 · before the open −17%
16:004:009:3016:00−2.3%
  1. News Reuters Q1 report: the sales outlook tops estimates
  2. News Reuters Morning Bid: a shrug for Nvidia
  3. News Yahoo Finance An $80 billion buyback and a bigger dividend
  4. News Yahoo Finance Chip stocks hit records, but Nvidia isn't the driver

Lesson. A slow week-long lag — visible only in a multi-day window.

H200 for China: Huang on Trump's trip

Exports and policy Trace days ahead First trace ahead of the price by 30 h

On the evening of 12 May Huang was a late addition to Trump's China trip; the market expected an H200 deal and NVDA hit a record on 13 May. Overnight into 14 May Reuters reported the US had cleared H200 sales to 10 Chinese firms; the move came before the open.

14.05.2026 ▲ +4.0% beyond the market NVDA +4.4% · QQQ +0.7% · z +2.5 half of the move by 14.05 04:00 · before the open 56%
16:004:009:3016:00+4.2%
  1. First trace Reuters Nvidia CEO joins Trump's China trip, spurring hopes for an H200 deal
  2. Build-up Investing.com AI chip stocks surge as Huang joins the visit
  3. News Reuters Exclusive: US clears H200 sales to 10 Chinese firms
  4. News FT Xi tells Nvidia, Tesla and Apple CEOs China will ‘open wider’

Lesson. The ‘exports to China’ story again gave a hint 1.5 days ahead.

AMD's report and the Corning deal

A customer's or rival's report The evening or night before First trace ahead of the price by 18 h

AMD's strong report (5 May after the close, AMD +16%) lifted the whole AI-chip group; in the morning Nvidia announced a $500M partnership with Corning. The market rose too (+2.1%).

06.05.2026 ▲ +3.6% beyond the market NVDA +5.8% · QQQ +2.1% · z +2.3 half of the move by 06.05 09:52 · before the open 16%
16:004:009:3016:00+2.6%
  1. First trace Reuters AMD's results beat estimates
  2. News Investing.com Corning surges 14% on a big NVIDIA partnership
  3. News MT Newswires AMD beats; Nvidia and Corning enter a multiyear partnership

Lesson. A rival's report the evening before.

Google to sell its TPUs

Competition and AI models Trace days ahead First trace ahead of the price by 8 days

On Alphabet's report (29 Apr after the close) Google said it would sell TPUs to ‘select’ customers. The story built for a week: on 22 Apr the eighth-generation TPUs (454 points on HN) and chips with Marvell. At night a Reuters exclusive on the B300 price in China. The market priced it in the regular session: half the move by 10:11.

30.04.2026 ▼ −6.6% beyond the market NVDA −4.6% · QQQ +0.9% · z −4.3 half of the move by 30.04 10:11 · before the open 8%
16:004:009:3016:00−5.9%
  1. First trace Benzinga Google teams up with Marvell on new AI chips and invests in TPUs
  2. Build-up Hacker News Google's eighth-generation TPUs — 454 points
  3. News Yahoo Finance Google to sell TPU chips to ‘select’ customers (Alphabet's report)
  4. News Reuters Exclusive: Nvidia's B300 server at $1M in China
  5. News 24/7 Wall St. NVIDIA falls 4% on rotation concerns

Lesson. A rival's story visible a week ahead; the news came on its report.

A rise without a clear cause

Cause not found Unclear Cause uncertain

Cause not found. Backdrop: NVDA's record and $5 trillion on 24 Apr after Intel's strong report and talk of the AI market pivoting to CPUs.

27.04.2026 ▲ +4.4% beyond the market NVDA +4.0% · QQQ +0.1% · z +2.9 half of the move by 27.04 12:32 · before the open 21%
16:004:009:3016:00+4.6%
  1. Backdrop Investing.com Nvidia crashes Intel's party as the AI market pivots to CPUs
  2. Backdrop Yahoo Finance A record close, over $5 trillion again

Lesson. No clear news: other sources need checking.

Q4 report: a record, but not enough

Own report Date known in advance

A record quarter (25 Feb after the close): the stock rose after hours, but the next day the market judged the outlook not enough. On 27 Feb the drop went on; OpenAI closed a $110B round with $30B from Nvidia.

26.02.2026 ▼ −4.3% beyond the market NVDA −5.5% · QQQ −1.2% · z −2.5 · report half of the move by 26.02 09:35 · before the open 10%
16:004:009:3016:00−3.1%
27.02.2026 ▼ −4.2% beyond the market NVDA −4.2% · QQQ −0.3% · z −2.4 half of the move by 27.02 11:56 · before the open 10%
16:004:009:3016:00−2.9%
  1. News Proactive Nvidia posts a blowout Q4
  2. News Motley Fool Why Nvidia stock is soaring after hours
  3. News Yahoo Finance Nvidia falls as the Q4 beat and guidance fail to satisfy Wall Street
  4. News Reuters OpenAI clinches an $840B valuation with Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank

Lesson. Its own report: the date is known, the direction is not.

Alphabet's and Amazon's capex after the selloff

A customer's or rival's report The evening or night before First trace ahead of the price by 38 h

After the early-February selloff the reports of Alphabet (4 Feb) and Amazon (5 Feb) with huge capex confirmed demand for AI chips; Huang called AI spending sustainable. Half the move came before the open.

06.02.2026 ▲ +5.5% beyond the market NVDA +7.9% · QQQ +2.1% · z +3.2 half of the move by 06.02 05:58 · before the open 45%
16:004:009:3016:00+4.2%
  1. Backdrop Reuters Nvidia nears a deal to invest $20B in OpenAI's round
  2. First trace Reuters Alphabet's report: capex
  3. News Reuters Amazon's report: capex
  4. News Investing.com Huang: AI spending is sustainable and will continue for years

Lesson. Customers' capex the evening before, again.

WSJ: the $100B OpenAI investment stalls

Media scoop The evening or night before First trace ahead of the price by 3 days

On Friday evening (30 Jan) the WSJ wrote that Nvidia's plan to invest up to $100B in OpenAI had stalled. Huang denied it on Saturday, but on Monday NVDA opened lower.

02.02.2026 ▼ −4.4% beyond the market NVDA −2.9% · QQQ +0.7% · z −2.6 half of the move by 02.02 09:34 · before the open 33%
16:004:009:3016:00−4.3%
  1. Backdrop Reuters The Information: Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon in talks to invest up to $60B in OpenAI
  2. First trace Reuters WSJ: Nvidia's plan to invest up to $100B in OpenAI has stalled
  3. News Reuters Huang denies he is unhappy with OpenAI, says a ‘huge’ investment is planned
  4. News MT Newswires The OpenAI investment plan stalls

Lesson. A Friday-evening scoop: a weekend before the open.

Google TPUs: Meta weighs Google's chips

Competition and AI models Trace days ahead First trace ahead of the price by 17 days

The story built for two weeks: Google released the Ironwood TPU (7 Nov) and Gemini 3 (18 Nov), hailed as the best model. On the evening of 24 Nov The Information reported Meta was in talks to buy Google's TPUs. NVDA started falling at 17:55, before the first reprint in the archive (18:38). 28 Nov: cause not found (China curbed ByteDance's use of Nvidia chips).

25.11.2025 ▼ −4.0% beyond the market NVDA −2.6% · QQQ +0.6% · z −2.6 half of the move by 24.11 17:55 · before the open 104%
16:004:009:3016:00−4.4%
28.11.2025 ▼ −3.4% beyond the market NVDA −1.8% · QQQ +0.8% · z −2.2 half of the move by 28.11 09:37 · before the open 38%
16:004:009:3016:00−3.3%
  1. First trace GuruFocus Alphabet's new Ironwood chip as TPU demand soars
  2. Build-up Reuters Google launches Gemini 3
  3. News Investing.com The Information: Meta and Google discuss a TPU deal
  4. News Fortune Markets wipe $250 billion off Nvidia as they digest Google's revenge
  5. Backdrop Reuters The Information: China blocks ByteDance from using Nvidia chips in new data centers

Lesson. The ‘TPU competition’ story was visible a week ahead; the scoop itself came in the evening, and the price moved before the reprints.

A rebound and SoftBank's exit from Nvidia

Investors and analysts The evening or night before

10 Nov: a market-wide rebound on the shutdown deal and analysts' buy calls. 11 Nov: SoftBank's quarterly results showed it had sold its whole Nvidia stake for $5.8B; the drop came before the open.

10.11.2025 ▲ +2.9% beyond the market NVDA +5.8% · QQQ +2.2% · z +2.1 half of the move by 10.11 08:00 · before the open 58%
16:004:009:3016:00+2.3%
11.11.2025 ▼ −3.0% beyond the market NVDA −3.0% · QQQ −0.3% · z −2.1 half of the move by 11.11 07:36 · before the open 50%
16:004:009:3016:00−2.4%
  1. Backdrop Investing.com Analysts: China restrictions ‘irrelevant’, buy
  2. First trace AP SoftBank says it sold its Nvidia shares for $5.8 billion (quarterly results)
  3. News Reuters SoftBank's stake sale stirs fresh AI bubble fears

Lesson. A big shareholder's report at night New York time; its date was known.

AI bubble, Burry's bet and the Blackwell ban for China

Cause not found Unclear Cause uncertain

No single cause found. On 4 Nov Michael Burry disclosed puts on NVDA and Palantir and the White House confirmed the ban on selling the best chips to China; on 5 Nov NVDA lagged the market late in the day.

05.11.2025 ▼ −3.1% beyond the market NVDA −1.8% · QQQ +0.7% · z −2.4 half of the move by 05.11 15:31 · before the open −8%
16:004:009:3016:00−2.0%
  1. Backdrop Reuters Trump: China and others can't have Nvidia's top chips
  2. Backdrop Hacker News Burry discloses a $1.1B bet against Nvidia and Palantir — 195 points
  3. Backdrop Reuters White House: Nvidia cannot sell its most advanced chip to China

Lesson. Sentiment without one event: the card shows the backdrop.

GTC Washington: $500B of bookings and $5 trillion

Own event Date known in advance First trace ahead of the price by 28 h

At GTC in Washington Huang cited $500B of Blackwell and Rubin bookings through 2026, a $1B stake in Nokia and Energy Department supercomputers. NVDA rose during the keynote. The next day: a $5 trillion valuation and Trump's remarks on Blackwell for China.

28.10.2025 ▲ +4.4% beyond the market NVDA +5.0% · QQQ +0.8% · z +3.4 half of the move by 28.10 13:45 · before the open 7%
16:004:009:3016:00+5.1%
29.10.2025 ▲ +2.7% beyond the market NVDA +3.0% · QQQ +0.5% · z +2.1 · CPI/NFP/FOMC day half of the move by 28.10 16:48 · before the open 123%
16:004:009:3016:00+2.8%
  1. First trace Investing.com What to expect from Jensen's GTC keynote on Tuesday
  2. News TheStreet Nvidia rallies 5% on a $500 billion booking projection
  3. News Reuters Nvidia's $1 billion stake sends Nokia to a decade high
  4. News Reuters Trump may speak to Xi about the Blackwell chip
  5. News Reuters Nvidia hits a $5 trillion valuation

Lesson. The event date was known in advance, its content was not.

Broadcom advances, China tension

Cause not found Unclear Cause uncertain

No single cause found. The day before Broadcom struck a custom-chip deal with OpenAI; in the morning Reuters had an exclusive on a new Broadcom networking chip; the trade war with China flared up at the same time.

14.10.2025 ▼ −3.9% beyond the market NVDA −4.4% · QQQ −0.7% · z −3.0 half of the move by 14.10 10:14 · before the open 2%
16:004:009:3016:00−2.9%
  1. Backdrop Reuters Exclusive: Broadcom to launch a new networking chip as the battle with Nvidia intensifies

Lesson. No clear news: other sources need checking.

Nvidia to invest up to $100B in OpenAI

Company announcement Same time as the price First trace ahead of the price by 4 min

A strategic partnership: Nvidia will invest up to $100B in OpenAI. The price moved 4 minutes after the first Reuters note in the archive.

22.09.2025 ▲ +3.7% beyond the market NVDA +3.9% · QQQ +0.5% · z +2.3 half of the move by 22.09 12:14 · before the open −11%
16:004:009:3016:00+2.5%
  1. Backdrop Reuters Bloomberg: OpenAI and Nvidia to announce UK data-center investments (a different deal)
  2. First trace Reuters Nvidia to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI

Lesson. A sudden announcement: only speed can win here.

Oracle's cloud backlog

A customer's or rival's report The evening or night before First trace ahead of the price by 20 min

After the close on 9 Sep Oracle showed its cloud backlog exploding (Oracle +36% the next day). Half of NVDA's move was done by 16:29, right after the report.

10.09.2025 ▲ +4.4% beyond the market NVDA +3.8% · QQQ 0.0% · z +2.8 half of the move by 09.09 16:29 · before the open 66%
16:004:009:3016:00+3.5%
  1. Backdrop Reuters Nvidia unveils AI chips for video and software generation (Rubin CPX)
  2. First trace Reuters Oracle's report: its cloud backlog explodes
  3. News MT Newswires Oracle and Nvidia set to advance pre-bell

Lesson. A customer's report after the close: the move in the same minute.

Broadcom and OpenAI's own chip

A customer's or rival's report The evening or night before First trace ahead of the price by 10 h

After the close on 4 Sep Broadcom reported a new $10B customer, and the FT wrote it was OpenAI with its first own AI chip. The market saw a rival to Nvidia; the drop came before the open.

05.09.2025 ▼ −3.4% beyond the market NVDA −2.7% · QQQ +0.1% · z −2.2 · CPI/NFP/FOMC day half of the move by 05.09 06:19 · before the open 123%
16:004:009:3016:00−3.2%
  1. First trace TheStreet Broadcom teases higher growth after starting production on an OpenAI chip
  2. News Reuters FT: OpenAI to launch its first AI chip in 2026 with Broadcom
  3. News MT Newswires Broadcom tops views; speculation of an OpenAI deal

Lesson. A rival's report the evening before.

H20 sales to China resume

Exports and policy Trace days ahead First trace ahead of the price by 6 days

Nvidia said it would resume H20 sales to China; the US tied it to the rare-earths talks. The announcement came on the evening of 14 Jul, the move before the open on 15 Jul.

15.07.2025 ▲ +4.5% beyond the market NVDA +4.0% · QQQ +0.1% · z +2.4 · CPI/NFP/FOMC day half of the move by 15.07 04:00 · before the open 76%
16:004:009:3016:00+3.8%
  1. First trace MT Newswires Huang plans a Beijing visit amid plans for a China-only chip
  2. Build-up TechCrunch Nvidia reportedly plans a new AI chip for China
  3. Build-up Reuters Nvidia CEO to hold a media briefing in Beijing on 16 July
  4. News Reuters US: resuming the chips is part of the rare-earths talks
  5. News AP Nvidia to resume AI chip sales to China

Lesson. The ‘exports to China’ story ran for a week: Huang's visit, a Beijing briefing, then a night-time announcement. A story journal is needed.

Loop Capital's $250 target and a record

Investors and analysts Same time as the price First trace ahead of the price by 52 min

Loop Capital lifted its target to a street-high $250 (an AI ‘golden wave’); NVDA hit a record.

25.06.2025 ▲ +4.5% beyond the market NVDA +4.3% · QQQ +0.3% · z +2.3 half of the move by 25.06 10:15 · before the open 4%
16:004:009:3016:00+4.0%
  1. First trace Investing.com Loop Capital lifts its target to a street-high $250
  2. News Reuters Nvidia hits a record as an analyst predicts an AI ‘Golden Wave’

Lesson. A pre-market analyst note — the same day as the move.

Tariff crash: NVDA fell less than usual

Market-wide day No news

The second day of the crash after the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs: QQQ −6.2%, NVDA −7.4%. NVDA usually moves twice as much as the market, so formally this is a rise beyond the market. No news of its own.

04.04.2025 ▲ +4.9% beyond the market NVDA −7.4% · QQQ −6.2% · z +2.4 · CPI/NFP/FOMC day half of the move by 04.04 07:30 · before the open 53%
16:004:009:3016:00+4.4%
  1. Backdrop Yahoo Finance Nvidia, TSMC and chip stocks plunge after the tariffs
  2. Backdrop TheStreet China retaliates; Apple and Nvidia lead the tech tumble

Lesson. Market-wide days produce false ‘own’ moves; they need their own mark.

Analysts: ‘buy ahead of GTC’

Investors and analysts Same time as the price First trace ahead of the price by 17 h

On a day of softer-than-expected inflation JPMorgan and Citi told clients to buy NVDA after its drop and ahead of the GTC conference (17 March). The night before, Reuters reported that TSMC had pitched Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom a stake in a venture running Intel's factories, which may also have played a part (found by the forward check).

12.03.2025 ▲ +4.9% beyond the market NVDA +6.4% · QQQ +1.1% · z +2.5 · CPI/NFP/FOMC day half of the move by 12.03 09:35 · before the open 35%
16:004:009:3016:00+3.9%
  1. First trace GuruFocus Wells Fargo: the drop is a ‘golden opportunity’; what to watch at GTC
  2. Backdrop Reuters Exclusive: TSMC pitched an Intel foundry venture to Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom
  3. News Investing.com JPMorgan and Citi tell clients to buy the Nvidia/AMD pullback
  4. News GuruFocus Citi: $163 target, eyes a breakthrough at GTC

Lesson. Analyst notes ahead of the company's event; the GTC date is known in advance.

Post-earnings selloff and tariffs

Cause not found Unclear Cause uncertain

No single cause found: the selloff after the 26 Feb report went on, tariffs on Canada and Mexico, weak manufacturing data. Most of the drop came before the open.

03.03.2025 ▼ −5.2% beyond the market NVDA −8.7% · QQQ −2.2% · z −2.8 half of the move by 03.03 05:51 · before the open 63%
16:004:009:3016:00−5.2%
  1. Backdrop MT Newswires The week: indexes under pressure, ‘underwhelming’ Nvidia results
  2. Backdrop Reuters Nvidia and Broadcom test Intel's manufacturing process
  3. News Investing.com 5 reasons NVIDIA's stock is tanking again Monday

Lesson. A big day without one piece of news: the card shows the backdrop, not a cause.

Alphabet's $75B capex

A customer's or rival's report The evening or night before First trace ahead of the price by 12 h

After the close on 4 Feb Alphabet guided 2025 capex to $75B: demand for AI chips holds. Nearly all of NVDA's move came before the open. 7 Feb: cause not found.

05.02.2025 ▲ +5.0% beyond the market NVDA +5.2% · QQQ +0.5% · z +2.6 half of the move by 05.02 04:00 · before the open 92%
16:004:009:3016:00+3.8%
07.02.2025 ▲ +3.9% beyond the market NVDA +0.9% · QQQ −1.3% · z +2.0 · CPI/NFP/FOMC day half of the move by 07.02 10:53 · before the open 4%
16:004:009:3016:00+3.4%
  1. First trace Variety Alphabet guides 2025 capex to $75B (its report)
  2. News Reuters Alphabet plans a massive capex hike
  3. News Bloomberg Nvidia jumps as Super Micro says Blackwell systems are ready

Lesson. The customers' report calendar: their capex moves NVDA more than its own news.

DeepSeek R1: a cheap Chinese model sinks NVDA

Competition and AI models Trace days ahead First trace ahead of the price by 7 days

China's DeepSeek released R1, a model on par with the best American ones at a fraction of the compute cost. The market feared fewer expensive chips would be needed. 28 Jan: a rebound; 29–31 Jan: talk of new curbs on chip exports to China.

27.01.2025 ▼ −13.6% beyond the market NVDA −17.0% · QQQ −2.9% · z −7.1 half of the move by 27.01 09:30 · before the open 46%
16:004:009:3016:00−10.9%
28.01.2025 ▲ +7.0% beyond the market NVDA +8.9% · QQQ +1.5% · z +3.7 half of the move by 27.01 17:47 · before the open 46%
16:004:009:3016:00+4.3%
29.01.2025 ▼ −4.3% beyond the market NVDA −4.1% · QQQ −0.2% · z −2.2 · CPI/NFP/FOMC day half of the move by 29.01 07:00 · before the open 59%
16:004:009:3016:00−4.6%
31.01.2025 ▼ −3.9% beyond the market NVDA −3.7% · QQQ −0.1% · z −2.0 half of the move by 30.01 17:30 · before the open 71%
16:004:009:3016:00−2.9%
  1. First trace Hacker News The “DeepSeek-R1” thread — 1,843 points
  2. Build-up Wikipedia Views of the “DeepSeek” article: 20k a day against the usual 2.5k; 105k on 26 Jan
  3. Build-up Hacker News “DeepSeek and the Effects of GPU Export Controls”
  4. Backdrop NVDA −3.1% on the day (−2.5% beyond the market): part of the market is already reacting
  5. Build-up Hacker News “The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia” — 655 points: the direct link to Nvidia
  6. News Reuters The first financial-press headline in the archive naming DeepSeek (Morning Bid)
  7. News Bloomberg DeepSeek tops iPhone downloads and spurs an AI selloff
  8. News Reuters Lawmakers urge Trump to consider curbs on the Nvidia chips DeepSeek uses
  9. News MT Newswires US probes whether DeepSeek bought Nvidia chips in Singapore

Lesson. The tech community and attention to the topic (Hacker News, Wikipedia, the App Store) led the financial press by 2–7 days.

CES 2025 run-up and BofA's top pick

Investors and analysts Same time as the price First trace ahead of the price by 2 h

Ahead of Jensen Huang's CES keynote on 6 January, BofA named NVDA its top pick for 2025; the stock rose from the morning.

02.01.2025 ▲ +3.9% beyond the market NVDA +3.0% · QQQ −0.2% · z +2.0 half of the move by 02.01 10:53 · before the open 0%
16:004:009:3016:00+2.8%
  1. First trace GuruFocus Pre-market rally on CES buzz and BofA's top pick
  2. News Investopedia What analysts think ahead of Huang's CES keynote

Lesson. An analyst note on the day itself; only the CES date was known in advance.

Method and limits

The own move is how far NVDA went beyond its usual link to QQQ without NVDA itself (the coefficient over 250 sessions). The usual spread is the median over 120 sessions without report days; a case starts at 2σ. Neighbouring days of one story form an episode. All times are New York time. Sources: the Yahoo Finance news archive (headlines and publication times: Reuters, MT Newswires, Bloomberg and others), Hacker News, Wikipedia page views, Massive minute prices. Causes were set by hand from the headlines; AI search answers were not used as a source.

The small charts show the move beyond the market from the previous close: after hours of the day before, the night (dotted, no trading), the pre-market and the regular session (shaded).

  • The archive has no WSJ, The Information or X: their scoops show through reprints, late (on 24 Nov 2025, 43 minutes after the price).
  • Archive times are the declared publication times; the text is the article's current version.
  • The Yahoo archive ends on 11 Sep 2026; NVDA had no large own moves from 3 Sep to 2 Oct 2026.
  • The 2σ threshold and the robust spread are choices; another threshold changes the list.

Period: 02.01.2025 – 02.10.2026, 439 sessions. Built: 2026-10-06 16:27 UTC.