Arm Holdings (ARM): Qualcomm-Arm contract dispute trial
The Qualcomm-Arm contract dispute trial began on October 5, with potential for huge damages. Arm's stock has declined slightly since the trial started, reflecting uncertainty.
Move beyond the market by session
In typical days (σ): the move of ARM beyond its usual link to QQQ. Darker bars are days with an event of the storyline; R marks a report window.
Chronology
Events of the storyline in the order they reached our feed, New York time. An event is one fact; its first headline and up to three other reports are shown.
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RTRSQualcomm and Arm head to trial again, potential for huge damages in focus
SA07:37Qualcomm, Arm return to court over contract dispute
YF09:03Qualcomm Takes Arm to Court Over Withheld Chip Testing Tools and Leaked Deal Threats
YF09:26Qualcomm, Arm Reportedly Head Back To Court With Billions In Potential Royalties At Stake
reports in all: 15
Evening assessments
Every evening at 22:00 UTC while the storyline had news in the last three days. The model saw only the events that had arrived by then and the daily moves of the stock beyond the market.
40%+10 • Verdict or settlement in the Qualcomm-Arm trial
The Qualcomm-Arm contract dispute trial began on October 5, with potential for huge damages. Arm's stock has declined slightly since the trial started, reflecting uncertainty.
Why: The trial is ongoing and the outcome is uncertain, but a verdict could significantly impact Arm's royalty revenue. · size: large: over two typical days · priced in: little
What the model was given · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · a2
Company: ARM (Arm Holdings). Now: 2026-10-07 22:00 UTC (Wednesday). Storyline: Qualcomm-Arm contract dispute trial Chronology (UTC): - 10-05 10:06 Qualcomm and Arm head to trial again, potential for huge damages in focus (+6 similar) Stock move beyond the market by session, in typical days (sigma): 09-30 -0.6, 10-01 +0.0, 10-02 +0.7, 10-05 -1.0, 10-06 -0.3, 10-07 -0.6
30% • a verdict or settlement
Qualcomm and Arm have gone to trial again in their contract dispute, with potential for huge damages. The trial is ongoing, and a verdict or settlement is pending.
Why: The trial outcome is highly uncertain but could have a major financial impact on Arm if damages are awarded or denied. · size: large: over two typical days · priced in: partly
What the model was given · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · a2
Company: ARM (Arm Holdings). Now: 2026-10-06 22:00 UTC (Tuesday). Storyline: Qualcomm-Arm contract dispute trial Chronology (UTC): - 10-05 10:06 Qualcomm and Arm head to trial again, potential for huge damages in focus (+6 similar) Stock move beyond the market by session, in typical days (sigma): 09-29 +0.8, 09-30 -0.6, 10-01 +0.0, 10-02 +0.7, 10-05 -1.0, 10-06 -0.3
30% • a verdict or settlement in the trial
Qualcomm and Arm are heading to trial again in their contract dispute, with potential for huge damages. The stock fell 1.0 sigma on the news. A verdict or settlement is pending.
Why: The trial outcome is highly uncertain and could materially impact ARM's licensing revenue, but the market has only partially reacted to the start of proceedings. · size: large: over two typical days · priced in: little
What the model was given · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · a2
Company: ARM (Arm Holdings). Now: 2026-10-05 22:00 UTC (Monday). Storyline: Qualcomm-Arm contract dispute trial Chronology (UTC): - 10-05 10:06 Qualcomm and Arm head to trial again, potential for huge damages in focus (+6 similar) Stock move beyond the market by session, in typical days (sigma): 09-28 -1.8, 09-29 +0.8, 09-30 -0.6, 10-01 +0.0, 10-02 +0.7, 10-05 -1.0
How the model built the storyline
For each event the model was shown the company’s active storylines and chose: continue one, start a new one or treat the event as a one-off.
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New storyline · Qualcomm and Arm head to trial again, potential for huge damages in focus
Question and answer · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · s2
Company: ARM (Arm Holdings) New event (10-05 10:06 UTC): Qualcomm and Arm head to trial again, potential for huge damages in focus also reported: Qualcomm, Arm return to court over contract dispute also reported: Qualcomm Takes Arm to Court Over Withheld Chip Testing Tools and Leaked Deal Threats Storylines: 1. PATEO Signs Strategic MoU with Arm for Physical AI Innovation first (09-23 03:23): PATEO Signs Strategic MoU with Arm to Advance Physical AI Innovation 2. Arm's AI chip revenue target of $2B first (09-16 23:01): Arm CEO says he's more confident its new AI chip can meet a loftier $2B revenue goal latest (09-22 00:46): Why Intel, Arm, and Other AI Chip Stocks Soared Today → {"story": 0, "title": "Qualcomm-Arm contract dispute trial"}