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Eli Lilly (LLY): Lilly exits Foghorn collaboration on cancer drug

Lilly exited its collaboration with Foghorn on a cancer drug, causing an initial negative stock reaction that later reversed as the market absorbed the news. No further developments from Lilly are pending.

Decisive step within 5 trading days10%model’s estimate, 07.10 18:00 NY
Direction if it comes• unclearsmall: under one typical day
Already in the pricemostly3 events

Move beyond the market by session

In typical days (σ): the move of LLY beyond its usual link to QQQ. Darker bars are days with an event of the storyline; R marks a report window.

Chronology

Events of the storyline in the order they reached our feed, New York time. An event is one fact; its first headline and up to three other reports are shown.

Evening assessments

Every evening at 22:00 UTC while the storyline had news in the last three days. The model saw only the events that had arrived by then and the daily moves of the stock beyond the market.

10%+10 • —

Lilly exited its collaboration with Foghorn on a cancer drug, causing an initial negative stock reaction that later reversed as the market absorbed the news. No further developments from Lilly are pending.

Why: The collaboration exit is fully executed and the stock has already recovered, with no imminent catalyst expected within the next five trading days. · size: small: under one typical day · priced in: mostly

What the model was given · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · a2
Company: LLY (Eli Lilly). Now: 2026-10-07 22:00 UTC (Wednesday).
Storyline: Lilly exits Foghorn collaboration on cancer drug
Chronology (UTC):
- 10-01 12:08 Foghorn plunges as Lilly exits collaboration (+4 similar)
- 10-01 16:21 Foghorn Therapeutics Pivots Pipeline after Ending Eli Lilly Deal
- 10-06 12:37 Foghorn: Downgrade 'Sell' Eli Lilly Exit FHD-909 And Shift To Preclinical Assets
Stock move beyond the market by session, in typical days (sigma): 09-30 -1.4, 10-01 -0.4, 10-02 -0.4, 10-05 +0.0, 10-06 +0.8, 10-07 +1.6
0% • —

Lilly exited its collaboration with Foghorn on a cancer drug, causing Foghorn's stock to plunge and Foghorn to pivot its pipeline. Lilly's stock saw a slight negative reaction on the news day and a small positive move later, but no further catalyst for Lilly is indicated.

Why: The exit is already public and no upcoming decision, deal, or report for Lilly is mentioned in the chronology. · size: small: under one typical day · priced in: partly

What the model was given · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · a2
Company: LLY (Eli Lilly). Now: 2026-10-06 22:00 UTC (Tuesday).
Storyline: Lilly exits Foghorn collaboration on cancer drug
Chronology (UTC):
- 10-01 12:08 Foghorn plunges as Lilly exits collaboration (+4 similar)
- 10-01 16:21 Foghorn Therapeutics Pivots Pipeline after Ending Eli Lilly Deal
- 10-06 12:37 Foghorn: Downgrade 'Sell' Eli Lilly Exit FHD-909 And Shift To Preclinical Assets
Stock move beyond the market by session, in typical days (sigma): 09-29 -0.0, 09-30 -1.4, 10-01 -0.4, 10-02 -0.4, 10-05 +0.0, 10-06 +0.8
0% • —

On October 1, Eli Lilly exited its collaboration with Foghorn Therapeutics on a cancer drug, causing Foghorn's stock to plunge and Foghorn to pivot its pipeline. Lilly's stock declined by -1.4 sigma on September 30 and continued to fall on October 1 and 2, reflecting the market's reaction to the termination.

Why: The exit announcement has already been fully absorbed by the market, as evidenced by the significant stock declines on September 30 and subsequent days. · size: small: under one typical day · priced in: mostly

What the model was given · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · a2
Company: LLY (Eli Lilly). Now: 2026-10-03 22:00 UTC (Saturday).
Storyline: Lilly exits Foghorn collaboration on cancer drug
Chronology (UTC):
- 10-01 12:08 Foghorn plunges as Lilly exits collaboration (+4 similar)
- 10-01 16:21 Foghorn Therapeutics Pivots Pipeline after Ending Eli Lilly Deal
Stock move beyond the market by session, in typical days (sigma): 09-25 +0.1, 09-28 +0.1, 09-29 -0.0, 09-30 -1.4, 10-01 -0.4, 10-02 -0.4
0%−10 • —

Lilly exited its collaboration with Foghorn on a cancer drug, causing Foghorn to plunge and pivot its pipeline. Lilly's stock saw mild negative moves on the news. No further decisive steps are pending from Lilly based on the given information.

Why: The exit has been announced and the market has reacted with small negative moves, indicating the event is fully priced in. · size: small: under one typical day · priced in: mostly

What the model was given · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · a2
Company: LLY (Eli Lilly). Now: 2026-10-02 22:00 UTC (Friday).
Storyline: Lilly exits Foghorn collaboration on cancer drug
Chronology (UTC):
- 10-01 12:08 Foghorn plunges as Lilly exits collaboration (+4 similar)
- 10-01 16:21 Foghorn Therapeutics Pivots Pipeline after Ending Eli Lilly Deal
Stock move beyond the market by session, in typical days (sigma): 09-25 +0.1, 09-28 +0.1, 09-29 -0.0, 09-30 -1.4, 10-01 -0.4, 10-02 -0.4
10% ▼ —

Lilly exited its collaboration with Foghorn on a cancer drug, leading Foghorn to plunge and pivot its pipeline. Lilly's stock fell modestly on the day, following a larger decline the previous session.

Why: The exit was already partially anticipated given the prior day's drop, and no specific upcoming catalysts are indicated. · size: small: under one typical day · priced in: partly

What the model was given · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · a2
Company: LLY (Eli Lilly). Now: 2026-10-01 22:00 UTC (Thursday).
Storyline: Lilly exits Foghorn collaboration on cancer drug
Chronology (UTC):
- 10-01 12:08 Foghorn plunges as Lilly exits collaboration (+4 similar)
- 10-01 16:21 Foghorn Therapeutics Pivots Pipeline after Ending Eli Lilly Deal
Stock move beyond the market by session, in typical days (sigma): 09-24 +1.6, 09-25 +0.1, 09-28 +0.1, 09-29 -0.0, 09-30 -1.4, 10-01 -0.4

How the model built the storyline

For each event the model was shown the company’s active storylines and chose: continue one, start a new one or treat the event as a one-off.

  1. New storyline · Foghorn plunges as Lilly exits collaboration

    Question and answer · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · s2
    Company: LLY (Eli Lilly)
New event (10-01 12:08 UTC): Foghorn plunges as Lilly exits collaboration
  also reported: FHTX Stock On Track For Record Low — Why Did Foghorn And Lilly Pull The Plug On Cancer Drug?
  also reported: Lilly, Foghorn part ways; Wave’s FDA-approved plans

Storylines:
1. Foundayo demonstrates cardiovascular safety in large type 2 diabetes trial
   first (09-30 22:02): Lilly's oral GLP-1, Foundayo (orforglipron), demonstrated cardiovascular safety alongside sustained A1C reduction and weight loss in its largest and longest type 2 diabetes study
   latest (10-01 11:39): Lilly Foundayo is predicted to cut diabetes risk by 57% in late-stage study
2. EloraTZP Phase 2 success in obesity and type 2 diabetes
   first (09-30 14:15): Lilly's EloraTZP (combination of eloralintide and tirzepatide) delivered greater weight loss and A1C reduction vs. tirzepatide 15 mg in adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes
   latest (09-30 14:21): Experimental Lilly combination drug tops Zepbound in weight-loss trial
3. EBGLYSS Phase 3b success in hand and foot atopic dermatitis
   first (09-30 12:05): New Phase 3b data show Lilly's EBGLYSS (lebrikizumab-lbkz) delivered significant and rapid improvements in skin clearance, itch, pain, and patient satisfaction in people with moderate-to-severe hand and foot atopic dermatitis
4. Retatrutide phase 3 results show substantial weight loss and A1C reduction
   first (09-29 22:02): Lilly's triple agonist, retatrutide, delivered substantial weight loss and A1C reduction, underscoring its potential promise for people with obesity and type 2 diabetes
   latest (09-30 00:12): ELI LILLY SAYS THE TRIPLE AGONIST ALSO REDUCED A1C IN PEOPLE WITH OBESITY AND TYPE 2 DIABETES, WITH A BIOLOGICS LICENCE APPLICATION PLANNED FOR Q1 2027.
5. Foundayo shows superiority over oral semaglutide in diabetes analysis
   first (09-29 07:01): Lilly's Foundayo (orforglipron) 17.2 mg showed greater weight loss and A1C reduction than oral semaglutide 25 mg among adults with type 2 diabetes in a new indirect treatment comparison
   latest (09-29 16:14): Lilly Stock Drops Lowwer Foundayo Claims an Oral Edge
6. Zepbound shows greater weight loss than Wegovy in indirect comparison
   first (09-29 11:02): Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide 10 mg and 15 mg) was associated with more weight loss than Wegovy HD (semaglutide injection 7.2 mg) in a new indirect treatment comparison
7. Novo Nordisk trial results show cardiovascular edge over Lilly's tirzepatide
   first (09-28 18:45): Novo Nordisk Just Beat Lilly in a Trial. Is the Comeback Finally Taking Shape?
8. Lilly U.S. manufacturing expansion
   first (09-21 21:40): Lilly breaks ground in Houston, one of ten U.S. manufacturing sites announced since 2020
   latest (09-28 14:40): He Will Switch Contractors to Help Build Eli Lilly’s $6.5 Billion Plant. Two W-2s Could Put $2,821 in Social Security Taxes Back in His Pocket
9. Lilly wins two FDA approvals and $3.35B drug alliance
   first (09-27 20:33): Eli Lilly (LLY) Wins Two FDA Approvals And A $3.35 Billion Drug Alliance
10. Lilly cuts obesity drug candidate
   first (09-26 16:16): Lilly Cut an Obesity Drug -- but the Move Shows How High Its Bar Has Become
11. FDA expands Olumiant label for pediatric alopecia areata
   first (09-25 21:14): FDA approves Lilly's Olumiant (baricitinib) for pediatric patients 12 years of age and older with severe alopecia areata
12. Nektar Therapeutics jury verdict against Lilly
   first (09-25 11:44): Nektar Therapeutics awarded $90 million in jury verdict against Eli Lilly

→ {"story": 0, "title": "Lilly exits Foghorn collaboration on cancer drug"}

  2. Continues the storyline · Foghorn Therapeutics Pivots Pipeline after Ending Eli Lilly Deal

    Question and answer · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · s2
    Company: LLY (Eli Lilly)
New event (10-01 16:21 UTC): Foghorn Therapeutics Pivots Pipeline after Ending Eli Lilly Deal

Storylines:
1. Lilly exits Foghorn collaboration on cancer drug
   first (10-01 12:08): Foghorn plunges as Lilly exits collaboration
2. Foundayo demonstrates cardiovascular safety in large type 2 diabetes trial
   first (09-30 22:02): Lilly's oral GLP-1, Foundayo (orforglipron), demonstrated cardiovascular safety alongside sustained A1C reduction and weight loss in its largest and longest type 2 diabetes study
   latest (10-01 11:39): Lilly Foundayo is predicted to cut diabetes risk by 57% in late-stage study
3. EloraTZP Phase 2 success in obesity and type 2 diabetes
   first (09-30 14:15): Lilly's EloraTZP (combination of eloralintide and tirzepatide) delivered greater weight loss and A1C reduction vs. tirzepatide 15 mg in adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes
   latest (09-30 14:21): Experimental Lilly combination drug tops Zepbound in weight-loss trial
4. EBGLYSS Phase 3b success in hand and foot atopic dermatitis
   first (09-30 12:05): New Phase 3b data show Lilly's EBGLYSS (lebrikizumab-lbkz) delivered significant and rapid improvements in skin clearance, itch, pain, and patient satisfaction in people with moderate-to-severe hand and foot atopic dermatitis
5. Retatrutide phase 3 results show substantial weight loss and A1C reduction
   first (09-29 22:02): Lilly's triple agonist, retatrutide, delivered substantial weight loss and A1C reduction, underscoring its potential promise for people with obesity and type 2 diabetes
   latest (09-30 00:12): ELI LILLY SAYS THE TRIPLE AGONIST ALSO REDUCED A1C IN PEOPLE WITH OBESITY AND TYPE 2 DIABETES, WITH A BIOLOGICS LICENCE APPLICATION PLANNED FOR Q1 2027.
6. Foundayo shows superiority over oral semaglutide in diabetes analysis
   first (09-29 07:01): Lilly's Foundayo (orforglipron) 17.2 mg showed greater weight loss and A1C reduction than oral semaglutide 25 mg among adults with type 2 diabetes in a new indirect treatment comparison
   latest (09-29 16:14): Lilly Stock Drops Lowwer Foundayo Claims an Oral Edge
7. Zepbound shows greater weight loss than Wegovy in indirect comparison
   first (09-29 11:02): Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide 10 mg and 15 mg) was associated with more weight loss than Wegovy HD (semaglutide injection 7.2 mg) in a new indirect treatment comparison
8. Novo Nordisk trial results show cardiovascular edge over Lilly's tirzepatide
   first (09-28 18:45): Novo Nordisk Just Beat Lilly in a Trial. Is the Comeback Finally Taking Shape?
9. Lilly U.S. manufacturing expansion
   first (09-21 21:40): Lilly breaks ground in Houston, one of ten U.S. manufacturing sites announced since 2020
   latest (09-28 14:40): He Will Switch Contractors to Help Build Eli Lilly’s $6.5 Billion Plant. Two W-2s Could Put $2,821 in Social Security Taxes Back in His Pocket
10. Lilly wins two FDA approvals and $3.35B drug alliance
   first (09-27 20:33): Eli Lilly (LLY) Wins Two FDA Approvals And A $3.35 Billion Drug Alliance
11. Lilly cuts obesity drug candidate
   first (09-26 16:16): Lilly Cut an Obesity Drug -- but the Move Shows How High Its Bar Has Become
12. FDA expands Olumiant label for pediatric alopecia areata
   first (09-25 21:14): FDA approves Lilly's Olumiant (baricitinib) for pediatric patients 12 years of age and older with severe alopecia areata

→ {"story": 1}

  3. Continues the storyline · Foghorn: Downgrade 'Sell' Eli Lilly Exit FHD-909 And Shift To Preclinical Assets

    Question and answer · DeepSeek-V4-Flash, thinking high · s2
    Company: LLY (Eli Lilly)
New event (10-06 12:37 UTC): Foghorn: Downgrade 'Sell' Eli Lilly Exit FHD-909 And Shift To Preclinical Assets

Storylines:
1. Lilly cancer drug receives FDA orphan drug status
   first (10-05 18:03): Eli Lilly’s Push Beyond Weight Loss Gets Another Boost – FDA Grants Cancer Drug Orphan Drug Status
2. Lilly-backed TRex Bio files for IPO
   first (10-05 13:14): Eli Lilly-Backed TRex Bio Seeks to Raise $133.3 Million in IPO
3. Lilly targets amylin pathway for next-gen obesity drug combinations
   first (10-05 13:03): Eli Lilly Targets Amylin Pathway to Unlock Next Generation Obesity Drug Combinations
4. Gate Bioscience collaboration expansion for difficult-to-drug proteins
   first (10-05 12:04): Gate Bioscience Expands Collaboration and License Agreement with Lilly to Target Difficult-to-Drug Proteins
5. Foundayo demonstrates cardiovascular safety in large type 2 diabetes trial
   first (09-30 22:02): Lilly's oral GLP-1, Foundayo (orforglipron), demonstrated cardiovascular safety alongside sustained A1C reduction and weight loss in its largest and longest type 2 diabetes study
   latest (10-02 22:46): Eli Lilly’s Foundayo delivers diabetes surprise in late-stage study
6. Jaypirca FDA approval expansion for CLL/SLL
   first (10-02 19:07): Lilly's Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib), the first-and-only approved non-covalent BTK inhibitor, receives expanded indication from U.S. FDA for certain patients with previously untreated CLL/SLL
7. Lilly takes over Milan facility in obesity battle with Novo
   first (10-02 08:20): Lilly Upstages Novo in Fresh Obesity Battle by Taking Over Milan
8. Lilly dispute with German health policy
   first (10-02 07:01): “My Trust Is Destroyed” Eli Lilly Boss Settles Accounts With German Health Policy - HB
9. Lilly exits Foghorn collaboration on cancer drug
   first (10-01 12:08): Foghorn plunges as Lilly exits collaboration
   latest (10-01 16:21): Foghorn Therapeutics Pivots Pipeline after Ending Eli Lilly Deal
10. EloraTZP Phase 2 success in obesity and type 2 diabetes
   first (09-30 14:15): Lilly's EloraTZP (combination of eloralintide and tirzepatide) delivered greater weight loss and A1C reduction vs. tirzepatide 15 mg in adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes
   latest (09-30 14:21): Experimental Lilly combination drug tops Zepbound in weight-loss trial
11. EBGLYSS Phase 3b success in hand and foot atopic dermatitis
   first (09-30 12:05): New Phase 3b data show Lilly's EBGLYSS (lebrikizumab-lbkz) delivered significant and rapid improvements in skin clearance, itch, pain, and patient satisfaction in people with moderate-to-severe hand and foot atopic dermatitis
12. Retatrutide phase 3 results show substantial weight loss and A1C reduction
   first (09-29 22:02): Lilly's triple agonist, retatrutide, delivered substantial weight loss and A1C reduction, underscoring its potential promise for people with obesity and type 2 diabetes
   latest (09-30 00:12): ELI LILLY SAYS THE TRIPLE AGONIST ALSO REDUCED A1C IN PEOPLE WITH OBESITY AND TYPE 2 DIABETES, WITH A BIOLOGICS LICENCE APPLICATION PLANNED FOR Q1 2027.

→ {"story": 9}