← COMPANIES · STORYLINES

Storylines that may come to a head within 1–5 trading days

A model reads our news feed for the 50 tracked companies: which headlines are about which company, which of them report one event, and which events add up to a storyline — a deal, a lawsuit, a launch, a regulator’s decision. Every evening at 22:00 UTC it sees only what had arrived by then and judges what is pending. Assessments as of 07.10 18:00 New York time.

Headline groups212,39702.09–07.10

About the 50 companies15,484direct link only

Events (facts)8,5775,480 opinion pieces aside

Storylines1,7546,139 evening assessments

Assessed on the latest evening

Ordered by the chance of a decisive step within 5 trading days times the size of the move it would bring. The chance is the model’s own estimate; how such estimates matched what happened next is shown below.

Company Storyline and what is pending Within 5 days If it comes Latest event

LLY Lilly targets amylin pathway for next-gen obesity drug combinations Next: Announcement of a clinical trial initiation or partnership for an amylin-based obesity drug 20% ▲ rise size: medium · priced in: partly 05.10 09:03 · 1 ev.Eli Lilly Targets Amylin Pathway to Unlock Next Generation Obesity Drug Combinations

LLY Gate Bioscience collaboration expansion for difficult-to-drug proteins 15% ▲ rise size: medium · priced in: little 05.10 08:04 · 1 ev.Gate Bioscience Expands Collaboration and License Agreement with Lilly to Target Difficult-to-Drug Proteins

LLY Lilly-backed TRex Bio files for IPO Next: IPO pricing 20% ▲ rise size: small · priced in: partly 05.10 09:14 · 1 ev.Eli Lilly-Backed TRex Bio Seeks to Raise $133.3 Million in IPO

LLY Lilly exits Foghorn collaboration on cancer drug 10% • unclear size: small · priced in: mostly 06.10 08:37 · 3 ev.Foghorn: Downgrade 'Sell' Eli Lilly Exit FHD-909 And Shift To Preclinical Assets

LLY Lilly cancer drug receives FDA orphan drug status 10% • unclear size: small · priced in: partly 05.10 14:03 · 1 ev.Eli Lilly’s Push Beyond Weight Loss Gets Another Boost – FDA Grants Cancer Drug Orphan Drug Status

LLY Nektar lawsuit victory over Lilly 10% • unclear size: small · priced in: mostly 07.10 11:39 · 1 ev.Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR): $115 Million Lawsuit Victory Over Eli Lilly Clears Multi-Year Overhang

How the evening estimates matched what came next

Evenings 03.09–30.09: 4,843 assessments with five sessions of prices after them. A large move is a day beyond the market of at least two typical days (2σ) in the next five sessions; a new event is a new fact of the same storyline within five trading days.

Model’s chance within 5 days Assessments Large move followed New event followed

0–19%2,08926%16%

20–39%1,56828%19%

40–59%61227%23%

60–100%57431%35%

All assessments4,84328%20%

Direction: where the model named up or down and the stock moved at least one typical day beyond the market over the next five sessions, the sign matched in 687 of 1481 cases.

Assessments of one storyline on neighbouring evenings overlap, and a large move may come from other news; this is a first reading over five weeks, not a proof.

How it is built

Which company: every first headline of a group of reprints goes to Qwen3.6-27B with thinking off; the rare doubtful ones go to DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, which may read the article. Only a direct link counts: the company, its product, unit or executive is the subject or a party of the news.
One event: headlines of a company close in meaning over 72 hours are compared by Qwen3.6-27B; every merge it proposes is checked by DeepSeek V4 Flash with thinking. Opinion pieces without a new fact are set aside.
Storyline: DeepSeek V4 Flash with thinking decides whether a new event continues one of the company’s storylines of the last 14 days, starts a new one or is a one-off.
Evening assessment: at 22:00 UTC the same model sees the storyline’s chronology up to that moment and the stock’s daily moves beyond the market, and answers what is pending, the chance within 5 trading days, direction, size and how much is already in the price.