← COMPANIES · STORYLINES

Storylines that may come to a head within 1–5 trading days

A model reads our news feed for the 50 tracked companies: which headlines are about which company, which of them report one event, and which events add up to a storyline — a deal, a lawsuit, a launch, a regulator’s decision. Every evening at 22:00 UTC it sees only what had arrived by then and judges what is pending. Assessments as of 07.10 18:00 New York time.

Headline groups212,39702.09–07.10

About the 50 companies15,484direct link only

Events (facts)8,5775,480 opinion pieces aside

Storylines1,7546,139 evening assessments

Assessed on the latest evening

Ordered by the chance of a decisive step within 5 trading days times the size of the move it would bring. The chance is the model’s own estimate; how such estimates matched what happened next is shown below.

Company Storyline and what is pending Within 5 days If it comes Latest event

MU Taiwan union strike threat over bonus dispute Next: strike begins 70% ▼ fall size: large · priced in: little 07.10 03:55 · 14 ev.Micron workers at Taiwan plant vote in favour of strike

MU Micron plans to use excess cash for stock buybacks Next: formal buyback announcement or authorization 40% ▲ rise size: medium · priced in: partly 07.10 10:39 · 3 ev.Rosenblatt Lifts Micron’s Target to $1,900. The Cash Is There, The Buybacks Aren’t Yet.

MU New China rival threatens Micron and SanDisk Next: a court ruling or a countersuit from YMTC 30% • unclear size: medium · priced in: little 06.10 08:02 · 3 ev.Micron Says a Chinese Rival Poached Its Engineers, Then Sued It With Its Own Technology

MU Micron long-term demand visibility and strategic customer agreements Next: new strategic customer agreement or capacity expansion announcement 30% ▲ rise size: medium · priced in: little 06.10 08:15 · 8 ev.Micron says RAM shortages will drag into 2028, and customers face 'much higher prices'

MU ITC patent investigation into Micron Next: ITC order terminating investigation 30% ▲ rise size: small · priced in: partly 06.10 08:02 · 3 ev.Netlist and Micron Enter Patent License and Settlement Agreements

How the evening estimates matched what came next

Evenings 03.09–30.09: 4,843 assessments with five sessions of prices after them. A large move is a day beyond the market of at least two typical days (2σ) in the next five sessions; a new event is a new fact of the same storyline within five trading days.

Model’s chance within 5 days Assessments Large move followed New event followed

0–19%2,08926%16%

20–39%1,56828%19%

40–59%61227%23%

60–100%57431%35%

All assessments4,84328%20%

Direction: where the model named up or down and the stock moved at least one typical day beyond the market over the next five sessions, the sign matched in 687 of 1481 cases.

Assessments of one storyline on neighbouring evenings overlap, and a large move may come from other news; this is a first reading over five weeks, not a proof.

How it is built

Which company: every first headline of a group of reprints goes to Qwen3.6-27B with thinking off; the rare doubtful ones go to DeepSeek V4.1 Flash, which may read the article. Only a direct link counts: the company, its product, unit or executive is the subject or a party of the news.
One event: headlines of a company close in meaning over 72 hours are compared by Qwen3.6-27B; every merge it proposes is checked by DeepSeek V4 Flash with thinking. Opinion pieces without a new fact are set aside.
Storyline: DeepSeek V4 Flash with thinking decides whether a new event continues one of the company’s storylines of the last 14 days, starts a new one or is a one-off.
Evening assessment: at 22:00 UTC the same model sees the storyline’s chronology up to that moment and the stock’s daily moves beyond the market, and answers what is pending, the chance within 5 trading days, direction, size and how much is already in the price.