Published pilot tests—Instrument × snapshot × strategy × hypothesis rows
0DTE · market facts
Selection before expiration
A retrospective experiment, kept separate from observed market quotes.
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Stage—
Data—
Updated, NY—
Pilot screening outcomes—Screen passed / not passed / diagnostic only
Net A pilot screen—Rows at or above 1.0 / below 1.0
Coverage—Available / total retrospective 2026 session-snapshots
September 2026—Retrospective post-freeze check; not an untouched holdout
2026-only retrospective pilot
Expanding minimum 5 months train → 1 month test · June–August 2026 · not independent or untouched
| Instrument | Snapshot | Strategy / model | N | Brier skill | Net A | Net B | Positive months | 2026 / pilot screen | Sustained ×2 / Wilson | PF | 95% CI Δ | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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